Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 190241
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
841 PM MDT Wed Apr 18 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 824 PM MDT Wed Apr 18 2018

High resolution models indicate low levels may take a little
longer to moisten than previous runs had indicated. Given this and
the gusty southerly winds expected on Thursday, have expanded Red
Flag Warnings northward and eastward to include Teller, El Paso,
Crowley, and Bent counties. Update is already out.  -KT


&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 250 PM MDT Wed Apr 18 2018

..Marginal Red Flag conditions tomorrow...

Currently...

Sfc flow has been gradually weakening and backing with time over the
plains. Marginal gusty north winds over the far east plains were
continuing to weaken and the flow along the I-25 corridor has become
upslope. It was relatively cool across the region with temps in the
upper 50s to around 60 across the plains. Over the valleys, 40s to
around 50 were noted.

Except for a few wisps of cirrus moving into the region, skies were
clear

On the larger scale, a rather impressive weather system was offshore
of the Pacific NW Coast, and was moving toward coast California.

Tonight...

By this evening, the pacific weather system will be approaching the
N CA coast. High pressure over the north central plains will
continue to move slowly south. This will keep an easterly component
to the sfc flow over the plain tonight. Otherwise skies will be
clear tonight with min temps in the upper 20s to mid 30s across the
lower elevations, and 20s in the valleys.

Tomorrow...

Marginal Red Flag conditions are likely over the parts of the region
as southerly winds will ramp up across the forecast area as the
Pacific storm moves towards the region. Although winds will be well
over Red Flag criteria during the day tomorrow, minimum RH values
will only reach marginal critical values (i.e, less than 15% for 3
hours or more). Base on current guidance, the lowest RH values will
occur over the San Luis Valley. Over the plains, the I-25 corridor
region will see the lowers humidity values.

As mentioned above, winds will be quite gusty tomorrow across most
of the region. Wind gusting to 45 mph will be common across the
divides (Raton Mesa and Palmer Divide) and the San Luis Valley. with
lesser gusts elsewhere.

As for precip, It will likely remain dry through 6 pm. An isolate
shower/-tsra will be possible along the contdvd, especially across
the SW mtns. /Hodanish

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 PM MDT Wed Apr 18 2018

Ensembles are in good agreement through the weekend before
diverging early next week. The operational are in decent agreement
as well through the weekend with slight differences as we move
into next week. Overall forecast confidence through the weekend is
higher, with less confidence as we move into early next week.

Thursday night through Saturday...a slow moving upper level storm
system is forecast to track across southern Colorado and eject out
into the Central Plains by Saturday. Expect precipitation to move
into the Continental Divide Thursday night with periods of
moderate to heavy snowfall through the overnight hours, especially
above 10000 feet.

Focus then turn eastward on Friday. Very dynamic upper system is
forecast to be over southern Colorado throughout the day. As it
does so, a dryline is forecast to set up over far eastern Colorado
by the early afternoon. While CAPE values remain about 500 j/kg,
there could be one or two strong storms out near the Kansas border
through the afternoon. Elsewhere, a cold front is forecast to drop
south across the Plains by Friday evening, with precipitation
filling in north to south through the overnight hours. This is not
a particularly cold storm system, with rain likely through the
overnight hours. The exception will likely by the Palmer Divide
area where snow levels will likely fall to the surface Friday
night into Saturday. Mountain areas will continue to see periods
of snow, sometimes heavy, especially for the upper elevations of
the Continental Divide.

By Saturday, the upper storm system is forecast to move into the
Central Plains with wrap around moisture lifting off to the east
by Saturday afternoon. This will bring an end to the precipitation
from west to east through the day. Snow is expected to taper off
over the mountains by late afternoon. Areas over the Plains should
be dry as well by the late afternoon hours. Temperatures over the
weekend will stay in the 50s for highs across the Plains Friday
and Saturday with overnight lows in the 30s.

Sunday and Monday...high pressure will transit the area Sunday
with southwest flow developing on Monday across the region. Expect
generally dry conditions through this period with exception of the
mountains where scattered showers are possible. Temperatures will
warm into the 60s and 70s into early next week.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Models diverge as we head into the middle
of next week. The GFS wants to pump moisture northward into
southern Colorado with decent chances for precipitation for the
mountains, likely spreading into the Plains. The ECMWF is much
drier with zonal type flow and less moisture across the region.
For now, just have low pops across the area during this period as
we see how the pattern evolves into early next week. Mozley

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 250 PM MDT Wed Apr 18 2018

VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf
sites; KPUB, KALS and KCOS. Winds will be light the rest of today
and into tonight. Winds will become quits strong, generally from a
southerly component, at 20 to 35 knots.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM MDT Thursday for COZ220>222-
224>233-235.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH


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