Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 220536
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1136 PM MDT Thu Mar 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow showers over the central mtns this evening could bring an
  inch or two of snow, mainly north of Cottonwood Pass

- Increasing winds Saturday/Sunday ahead of next approaching
  weather system will bring increased fire danger to the
  southeast plains

- Fast moving weather system will bring a period of rain and
  snow showers to much of the area Sunday/Monday with
  accumulating snow most mountain locations

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 242 PM MDT Thu Mar 21 2024

Currently...

Mostly clear skies prevailed across the region at 2 pm. A few virga
showers were noted over parts of eastern Las Animas county and
western Baca county. Temps over the region at this hour were
generally in the 60s, with M50s across the San Luis Valley. Temps
in the mtns ranged from the 10s to 30s.

Tonight...

Relatively quiet wx will continue over the region. The only minor
concern will be some passing snow showers moving across the central
mtns tonight, with the brunt of the snow falling generally north of
Cottonwood Pass, where  an inch or two of new snow will be possible.
Expect mins to night will be in the 30s across the plains and 20s
larger valleys; with 10s and 20s mtns.

Tomorrow...

A bit cooler air will be over the region tomorrow, and this will
bring the temps downs a few degrees tamar afternoon, with max
temps expected to be in the L/M50s range. Dry wx is likely, although
there is a nonzero chance of some very light showers over the
greater Walsenburg region tomorrow morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 242 PM MDT Thu Mar 21 2024

Mid and upper level flow bends back southwesterly Saturday as
upper trough digs southward along the Pacific Coast. Lee
surface trough deepens on the plains, leading to a period of
strong winds along and east of the mountains, potentially
gusting 40-50 mph south of the Arkansas River. Main question for
fire danger will be humidity, as windiest areas near the KS
border pick up a modest surge of low level moisture ahead of the
lee trough, keeping min RH above 20 percent. Current forecasts
only have a small area in Las Animas County where low RH and
wind become critical Saturday afternoon, so will hold off on a
fire weather highlight for now. Downslope warming will boost
temps into the 60s/70s over the plains Sat, 40s/50s mountains.
Farther west, snow showers start up late Sat afternoon along
the Continental Divide, with steadier/heavier snow then
developing and spreading eastward across most of the higher
terrain Sat night. Will likely need winter highlights at some
point for much of the Continental Divide (heaviest snow in the
orographically favored ern San Juans), though still a little
early in the forecast cycle for anything today.

Models/ensembles have come into better agreement regarding the
strength and speed of the trough as it crosses CO and ejects
eastward into the plains late Sunday into Monday, with
fragmented nature of upper trough suggesting the more
progressive and slightly less wrapped up solutions of many
21/12z models may be correct. As upper trough swings eastward
toward the Rockies on Sunday, deep surface low pressure over
ern CO early in the day moves eastward into wrn KS by late
afternoon, allowing strong surface cold front to race south
through the plains, reaching the NM border by early evening.
Ahead of the front, strong swly winds and dry air will create
increased fire danger across the plains mainly south of the
Arkansas River, and a fire weather highlight may be needed at
some point for these areas. Best window for upward motion then
appears to develop 00z-06z Sunday evening as cold air races
south and upper trough moves across, before better lift shifts
south and weakens 06z-12z. Very preliminary first guess would be
for widespread 4-8 inches over the mountains from Sun afternoon
into mid-morning Mon, lighter amounts valleys, I-25 corridor
and plains, where precip may start as rain for a few hours
Sunday afternoon. Quick look at 12z NBM supports this, as
blended model probabilities for snow amounts over a foot across
eastern mountains are rather low, generally under 10 percent.
Still, there will be some trouble spots for the commute Monday
morning due to overnight snowfall, especially along I-25 over
Monument Hill and Highway 24 through Teller County.

Monday looks chilly with occasional snow showers many areas as
lingering energy within the western U.S. upper trough drifts
eastward through Colorado. Not expecting much in the way of
additional snow accumulations Monday, though some stronger snow
showers could drop a quick inch or two over the San Juans/srn
Sangres in the afternoon. Warmer Tuesday, though another round
of mountain snow showers looks likely as last piece of the
western trough pushes eastward into CO by late day. Brief
ridging then develops Wed with dry and warmer conditions, before
next deep trough approaches for the end of the week, bringing
back mountain snow and plains wind for Thu/Fri. Must be March.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1133 PM MDT Thu Mar 21 2024

VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours with waves of
mid/high level cloudiness at times. A cold front will bring a
north wind shift at both KCOS and KPUB between 06z-12z with some
gusts to around 25 kts at KCOS after 07z. Winds will shift from
the south to southeast at KCOS and KPUB late Friday morning with
10-15 kt wind speeds in the late afternoon and early evening
before winds decrease.

KALS will see lighter winds through the period with south to
southwest winds in the 10-15 kt range in the late afternoon and
early evening.
-KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...TORGERSON


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