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572
FXUS62 KRAH 141859
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
300 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will move northward along the Carolina coast this
afternoon and evening as low pressure approaches from the west.
Low pressure will shift to the coast tonight and Wednesday. A cold
front will move through the region Wednesday night and Thursday
morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 300 PM Tuesday...

Afternoon analysis reveals two areas worth noting from
satellite/radar. An MCV from this morning is presently just east of
Wilmington, NC. This MCV will continue to drift ENE and not be an
impact for the rest of today into the evening. A secondary but
noticeable circulation is over northern SC and about to move into
the southern Piedmont of central NC. Tied to this is a warm front
extending from the circulation over SE SC into eastern NC. The
northwest Piedmont remains in a wedge of easterly flow north of the
warm front. Latest radar trends have shown an uptick in showers and
embedded thunder along this circulation in north-central NC, where
dewpoints are in the low 70s. As this circulation lifts ENE over the
next few hours, showers will continue to advance northward over
central NC, with higher rainfall rates along/northwest of the low
over the northern/western Piedmont. Localized spots in this region
could pick up between 1 and 1.5 inches on top of what has already
fallen, which could cause an issue for poor drainage areas of the
Triad. Additional showers and embedded storms are favored to the
east of the low as it tracks ENE, roughly from the Sandhills to
central Coastal Plain, where 500 J/kg of CAPE could inch northward.
While the severe threat is much diminished, there could still be a
locally strong storm in this area, with the main impact being a
strong gusty wind or two.

Showers and some embedded storms are forecast to weaken between 7
and 9 PM as the low lifts off to our NE. There still remains a
chance of some isolated storms during the late evening to early
overnight, roughly from 10 pm to 2 am, across the western Piedmont
associated with the upper-low pivoting SE into TN/KY. Most guidance
still dies out the storms as they track east of the higher terrain,
owing to weaker forcing and little to no instability. Have left low-
end chance PoPs in this area, but most areas should be dry
overnight. Lows in the low to mid 60s
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 255 AM Tuesday...

There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms Wed. afternoon and
early evening.

A compact shortwave trough centered over the TN Valley and southern
Appalachians will move east through the region Wednesday before
moving offshore Wednesday night. A low pressure will start the day
over central NC which will drag a cold front SE across the area
later in the day. We should start the day with plenty of stratus/fog
limiting destabilization somewhat. Then, some partial sunshine
should allow for heating and destabilization in the afternoon.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop. A few of these may
become strong to locally severe with the main threat of damaging
wind. Large hail would be a secondary threat. Expect highs in the
mid 70s to lower 80s north to south.

Low clouds and fog may again be a problem Wednesday night if the
CAA is weak and delayed as some models suggest. Lows in the upper
50s and 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 AM Tuesday...

A series of upper level shortwaves will move across the Mid-Atlantic
region over the long term period. This will influence multiple
rounds of showers and storms mid week and over the weekend. At the
surface, another cold front is expected to move across the region
Thursday resulting in dry conditions. By Friday afternoon another
frontal boundary will move into the region with rain chances
increasing in the afternoon across the western Piedmont and
spreading east into the evening and overnight hours. For the
weekend, confidence for the weather pattern is low/medium as models
haven`t been very consistent on the timing of the next frontal
boundary.  For now, have increasing PoPs late Friday night with
showers continuing through Saturday. Depending where the surface low
is positioned by Sunday, that will result in how much more rainfall
Central NC will receive. Therefore, confidence for Sunday and Monday
is low for timing of precipitation, and medium for how much
precipitation. Some of the long term models show the low pressure
moving offshore by Monday resulting in a possibility for Monday to
be mostly dry. Temperatures over the period will be above average
with highs gradually increasing through the weekend. Thursday temps
will be in the low 80s whereas by the first part of next week temps
will be in the mid/upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 135 PM Tuesday...

Largely IFR conditions are expected to start the TAF period. Waves
of showers will continue to progress northeast across the terminals
into the early evening hours. There remains a chance of some
embedded storms, but confidence is too low to mention at this time.
If any storms do occur, the best chance appears to be at FAY and
possibly RWI/RDU, in the 21-02Z time frame. Most storms though
should remain confined south and east of the terminals. Most
guidance favors showers ending between 00-03Z as lift and energy move
to the north and east. Energy will be slowest to exit at RWI.
Lingering drizzle may linger across the northern terminals behind a
wave of low pressure. There could be a secondary chance of showers
at GSO/INT in the 00-06z period with a front but most guidance is
not in agreement on its eastward maintenance due to stability.
Otherwise, IFR/LIFR conditions will remain overnight before lifting
to MVFR by mid-morning Wed and VFR between 16-18z. As for fog, there
is limited agreement in the guidance as low-level clouds persist.
Any fog potential appears most favored at GSO/INT/RDU, but have left
out any mention for now.

Outlook: LIFR/IFR fog/stratus will lift to VFR Wed afternoon.
Another period of showers and storms are possible Wed aftn/eve,
along with a chance of sub-VFR stratus or fog early Thu. VFR should
return Thu midday, with the next chance of showers possibly from
late Fri into Sun.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Kren
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Kren