Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 212026
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
126 PM PDT Thu Mar 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

A final warm and dry in store today with above average temperatures
and afternoon breezes. Gusty winds and periods of rain and mountain
snow showers arrive Friday and linger through Sunday. Plan on Sierra
travel impacts this weekend. Unsettled weather is favored to
continue through next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

One final day of warm and dry conditions are in store today to cap
off what has been almost a week of pleasant weather. Highs will
remain 4-8 degrees above average this afternoon as temperatures
reach the 50s and 60s for Sierra and western Nevada communities,
respectively. Typical afternoon breezes will redevelop today with
gusts of 15-25 mph. Enjoy the weather today because we`re in for a
change starting tomorrow!

The synoptic regime becomes much more active beginning Friday as an
upper closed low and attendant trough approach the West Coast. As it
does so, large scale ascent will overspread the Sierra and western
Nevada downstream of an effective cold front. The co-location of
isentropic ascent and lift from the low-level boundary, coupled with
a subtropical moisture feed, will promote a band of rain and snow
showers along and ahead of the cold front.

Timing of arrival will favor the mid-afternoon hours Friday across
the Sierra, mainly north of US-50, before snowfall increases in the
coverage and intensity overnight. Peak snowfall rates of 1-2"/hr are
favored during the 10 PM - 4 AM PDT with the initial onset of
precip. The nature of the Sierra snow will evolve from steady to
more showery late Friday night into early Saturday morning in the
wake of the cold front passage. This also coincides with the best
potential for spillover precipitation in western Nevada as this area
will likely be shadowed out much of Friday. The remainder of the
weekend will remain unsettled with periods of showers contributing
additional rain and Sierra snow. Steepening mid-level lapse rates
amid ample surface heating will foster a low (10-15%) chance of
afternoon thunderstorms and/or pellet showers Saturday and Sunday,
especially in the Sierra. Showers will begin to taper off Sunday
evening into Monday morning.

48-hour snowfall along the Sierra crest will vary from 8-14" with a
10-30% chance of receiving 18+". Lower elevation Sierra communities
(i.e. Truckee, South Lake, Mammoth Lakes) will see 2-6" with a 20-
40% chance of 8+" of snow for the western side of the Tahoe Basin
and lower elevations west of US-395. Snow levels will lower just
enough to perhaps allow for light snowfall of 1-2" for adjacent
foothills/Virginia City. While some snowflakes may reach valley
floors, no accumulation is expected. The fly in the ointment will
be the spotty, convective showers over the weekend, which may
result in locally greater snowfall totals. Regardless, prepare for
slick, snow-covered roads and slower travel through the Sierra
this weekend! Meanwhile, rainfall across western Nevada will be on
the order of a few hundredths to a couple tenths of an inch.

An additional impact will be gusty winds for all elevations Friday
and Saturday. Winds will strengthen along ridges Friday afternoon,
reaching upwards of 90 mph by Saturday morning. Valleys gusts of 30-
40 mph are expected Friday afternoon, lowering to 25-35 mph for
Saturday afternoon. Some wind prone areas may see gusts up to 60 mph
locally. Winds will diminish late Saturday in response to weakening
flow aloft. Expect some impacts to backcountry recreation and choppy
lakes Friday and Saturday.

A progressive weather pattern will maintain periods of unsettled
weather through much of next week. The arrival of our next storm
is shaping up to be Wednesday, providing another bout of showers,
gusty winds, and cooler temperatures to the region.

-Salas

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions continue through the period. Winds remain mostly from
the west and southwest with gusts up to 15-25 kts this afternoon
and subsiding in the early evening.

FL100 winds will begin to increase by 12z Fri and will continue to
ramp up through Friday and Saturday. Peak winds will be in the 30-
40 kt range Friday night into Saturday morning.

Precipitation moves into the Sierra and NE CA around 0z Saturday
with peak rain/snow rates sweeping through KTRK/KTVL between 6-12z
Sat. Spillover into KRNO/KCXP/KMEV with the cold front is also in
that same timeframe with some light snowfall possible. Probabilities
of 6" of snow or more from Friday into Saturday are 10-20% for KTRK
and 30-40% for KTVL. KMMH potential for snow arrives between 12-18z
Saturday with a 10% chance of 4" or more of snow.

Crespo

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$


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