Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 142209
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
309 PM PDT Thu Jun 14 2018

.SYNOPSIS...

A cooling trend to below average temperatures is expected for the
weekend. Breezy afternoons and evenings will persist through
Saturday, with the strongest winds Friday ahead of a cold front.
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible through the weekend
becoming more widespread in the region on Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Moderate afternoon breezes and above average temperatures today
will give way to increasing winds tomorrow, a cooling trend
through the weekend, with a more unsettled weather pattern for
the weekend and into next week.

Incoming low pressure will increase surface gradients tomorrow
with widespread gusts of 30-40 mph in the afternoon creating
dangerous boating conditions and increasing fire weather concerns
as some of the grasses in western Great Basin have cured. For
more on fire weather refer to that section below. We could see a
few showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm near the Oregon
border on Friday as the initial front moves into the region.

On Saturday the core of the low starts to move into northern
California increasing the chances for showers and thunderstorms in
NE California and NW Nevada. By Sunday the core of low pressure
moves more directly over the area increasing likelihood of
showers and thunderstorms throughout the region. There are no
signals for organized strong thunderstorms but a few stronger
storms with heavy rain will be definitely be possible.

Low pressure is forecast to slowly weaken during the week, but
most model simulations have low pressure remaining over the Great
Basin through most of the workweek. This will keep chances for
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast potentially through a
good portion of next week. -Zach

&&

.AVIATION...

Afternoon wind gusts around 25kts will be a little stronger
Friday afternoon with gusts to 30-35kts. Incoming low pressure
will bring slight chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms
near the Oregon border on Friday. as the low pressure moves over
the region Saturday into Sunday with increasing chances for
showers and thunderstorms throughout the region by Sunday. -Zach

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

The recent period of very warm and dry weather has led to some
increased drying of grasses in west central NV, and the forecast
remains unchanged as winds become stronger Friday ahead of an
approaching cold front. Gusts Friday afternoon-evening could reach
40 mph while humidities drop into the 8-16% range. In areas where
the greatest drying of vegetation has occurred (fire zones 453 and
459), we will upgrade the watch to a Red Flag Warning. Areas south
of I-80 and below 5000 feet are expected to have the longest
duration of combined gusty winds and low humidity. Other portions of
the region will see periods of windy conditions on Friday, but
either fuel moistures have not yet dropped to critical levels or
humidity won`t be as low, so they will not be included in the
warning.

For Saturday, portions of west central NV especially south of US-50
will remain quite dry (minimum humidity between 10-15%) as the push
of higher humidity behind the cold front stalls just to the north
during the day. Wind gusts of 30-35 mph are projected by late
afternoon, but will be accompanied by increasing humidity. The
duration criteria for combined low humidity and wind gusts are
unlikely to be reached on Saturday, but this is worth keeping
attention for possible localized fire weather concerns, especially
if fires occur in these areas prior to the weekend. MJD

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM to 9 PM PDT Friday NVZ453-459.

     Lake Wind Advisory from 2 PM to 9 PM PDT Friday NVZ004.

     Lake Wind Advisory from 2 PM to 9 PM PDT Friday for Lake Tahoe
     in NVZ002.

     Lake Wind Advisory from 2 PM to 9 PM PDT Friday NVZ001.

     Lake Wind Advisory from 2 PM to 9 PM PDT Friday for Washoe Lake
     in NVZ003.

CA...Lake Wind Advisory from 2 PM to 9 PM PDT Friday CAZ073.

     Lake Wind Advisory from 2 PM to 9 PM PDT Friday for Lake Tahoe
     in CAZ072.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno


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