000
FXUS65 KREV 221906
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
1206 PM PDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure will maintain well above normal temperatures with
mostly dry conditions today. Isolated showers will be possible
this afternoon into tonight for Mono County and western Nevada.
The active weather continues Tuesday and beyond, including much
cooler temperatures by the week`s end and daily chances of showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

* Temperatures & Winds: Temperatures peaked yesterday across the
  region with most places getting into the low 80`s. A gradual
  cooling trend will take place this week, with high temps only
  reaching around 60-65 degrees on Friday across lower valleys.
  Wednesday and Thursday we`ll see a slight increase in the winds to
  35-40 mph from a shortwave trough passing through the region,
  otherwise we`ll have our typical zephyr kicking in each afternoon
  gusting to 30 mph.

  Precipitation Chances:
* Today: Starting off around 3 PM this afternoon, there`s a 10-15%
  chance of light rain showers along the Sierra crest in Alpine and
  Mono counties. By 5 PM today, those showers are expected to
  increase slightly in coverage, extending up to US-50 (15-20%
  chance). While there`s not an abundance of instability this
  afternoon, these high-based storms may still be able to produce
  lightning and gusty outflow winds up to 40 mph. By 8 PM tonight,
  the storms will have spread more across western NV, as far north
  as I-80. By 11 PM any remaining convection will be very weak and
  most likely virga.

* Tuesday: Storms will be more widespread (30% chance) across
  western NV and northeast CA in the afternoon hours, with heavier
  rainfall rates and a better chance for lightning. Current CAMs are
  showing higher CAPE values, higher effective shear, and increased
  divergence aloft, which are all indicators that we may see some
  better structured/slightly stronger thunderstorms. With that said,
  keep an eye on the sky tomorrow!

* Wednesday Through Friday: Scattered showers/thunderstorms return
  Wednesday afternoon, mainly for Mono and Mineral counties.
  Elevations above 9000 feet along the Sierra crest and White
  Mountains may see up to 2" of snow with these showers. Once this
  shortwave passes through, another deeper trough will dig south
  over the Pacific NW on Thursday. Widespread precipitation chances
  will be a result of this system moving into the region. Current
  long range models are projecting up to 2" of Sierra snow and
  up to 0.10" of valley rain through Friday.

* Extended Outlook: Long range models are in agreement of a ridge
  taking over this weekend, creating a short break in the active
  weather. GFS and EC ensembles are showing next week as mostly dry
  but cooler, although additional rounds of precip look likely for
  the first weekend in May.

-Justin

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR airfield conditions will the rule for the remainder of this
afternoon through Tuesday morning. The only exceptions will be some
cumulus buildups along the Carson Range, as well as a 20% chance for
some patchy morning fog around the the Martis valley to include
KTRK. Shower and thunderstorm chances will remain <10% into the
evening with typical westerly afternoon breezes gusting to 20kts
that will diminish following sunset tonight.

Unsettled weather and a bump up in shower and storm chances, however,
follows the departure east of the upper ridge through Tuesday.
Afterwards, upper level disturbances lifting E-NE across the Sierra
into western NV will allow the northward intrusion of a thickening
layer of mid-level moisture and increased instability from Tuesday
onward. Anticipate more widespread rain and thunderstorm chances
starting Wednesday with an increased potential for higher elevation
Sierra snowfall later this week. -Amanda

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$