Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
254
FNUS72 KFFC 160822
FWSFFC
Spot Forecast for CFLWMA - Almo G-6 North...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
422 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 EDT on May 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Good morning!
Expecting a mostly clear, sunny day with the exception of some
passing high clouds that will not be impactful. Winds will pick up
to be from the NW at 5 to 10 mph with some gusts that should
remain under 15 mph. Plenty of surface moisture still remains in
the area, so RHs are expected to only fall into the 40s by the
afternoon, though we could see this creep into the upper 30s
depending on how effective afternoon mixing is. Copious sunshine
should allow for good mixing heights, forecast to reach 5-6kft
AGL, and when combined with transport winds of 7-12 mph by the
afternoon, will allow for decent smoke dispersal. ADI values
approach the upper 60s by the afternoon.
Tonight, cloud cover will begin to move in, which should keep
temps from falling too far and eliminate any fog concerns. Rain
should begin to move in by Friday morning into the afternoon,
providing some natural extinguishing for anything still
smoldering.
.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 87.
Min humidity........42 percent.
Dewpoint............61.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming northwest 5 to 8 mph in
the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......5500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 5 to 12 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (700 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (49100 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................2 early in the morning increasing to 68 in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.
CEILING (KFT).......25.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........4 1 1 1 0 1 1 2 3 4 5 5
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............62 61 64 68 73 76 78 81 82 85 85 86
Dewpoint........60 60 62 62 62 61 61 60 60 60 60 60
RH..............94 96 92 82 68 60 54 50 47 44 42 42
20 FT wind dir..NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
20 FT wind spd..3 3 3 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 7 7
20 FT wind gust.7 6 6 7 8 9 10 12 13 13 13 13
Mix hgt (kft)...0.2 0.2 0.2 1.0 2.5 3.3 3.7 4.5 4.9 5.0 5.3 5.5
Transp wind dir.NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
Transp wind spd.5 5 5 6 8 9 10 10 12 12 12 10
LVORI...........7 7 6 4 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
ADI.............2 5 4 7 24 37 45 57 62 65 68 64
Haines index....5 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..1 1 1 7 19 25 31 41 47 47 49 49
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR FR FR FR FR FR
Ceiling (kft)...25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (55-65 percent).
CWR.................10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 66.
Max humidity........89 percent.
Dewpoint............62.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 6 mph early in the evening
becoming light.
Mixing height.......200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 2 to 8 mph shifting to the southwest
1 to 2 mph late in the evening, then shifting
to the southeast around 2 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (37000 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (400 knot-ft) late in the
night.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................1 to 41.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.
CEILING (KFT).......25.
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky (%).........3 4 16 23 46 56
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............86 82 73 70 68 67
Dewpoint........61 63 63 63 62 62
RH..............42 53 72 78 81 87
20 ft wind......NW 6 NW 2 NW 1 N 0 SE 1 SE 1
20 ft wind gust.10 5 2 1 2 2
Mix hgt (ft)....4200 200 300 300 300 300
Transport wind..NW 8 NW 3 W 2 SW 1 SE 2 SE 2
LVORI...........1 2 4 4 5 6
ADI.............41 1 1 1 1 1
Haines index....4 5 5 5 4 4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..37 1 0 0 0 1
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
Ceiling (kft)...25 25 25 25 25 25
.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of
showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in
the morning, then showers likely and chance of
thunderstorms in the afternoon.
CWR.................10 percent increasing to 60 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1100, then 2 until 1300, then 3.
Max temperature.....Around 80.
Min humidity........61 percent.
Dewpoint............64.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast 5 to 8 mph in
the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms late in the morning.
Mixing height.......3300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 1 to 2 mph increasing to southeast 12 to
18 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (500 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (54000 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................1 early in the morning increasing to 63 in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
large plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.14 inches.
CEILING (KFT).......20 decreasing to 15 early in the morning, then
decreasing to 12 early in the morning
decreasing to 7.0 late in the morning
decreasing to 5.0 decreasing to 2.5 late in the
morning decreasing to 1.8 increasing to 2.5
late in the afternoon.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........77 84 85 88 87 76
Weather cov..... CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY
Weather type....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........ S CHC CHANCE CHANCE
CWR.............10 40 40 40 60 60
LAL.............1 1 1 2 3 3
Temp............66 67 73 77 78 79
Dewpoint........62 64 65 65 65 65
RH..............87 88 78 68 65 61
20 ft wind......SE 1 SW 1 SE 3 SE 5 SE 7 S 8
20 ft wind gust.3 2 5 9 13 14
Mix hgt (ft)....200 200 1400 2000 2700 3200
Transport wind..SE 2 SW 2 S 8 S 12 SE 13 S 18
LVORI...........6 6 4 3 2 1
ADI.............1 2 14 28 38 59
Haines index....4 5 5 3 3 3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..1 1 12 20 30 48
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR FAIR
Ceiling (kft)...20 12 5.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
$$
Forecaster...Lusk
Requested by...Bryn Pipes
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414310.0/FFC
.DELDT 05/16/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL bryn.pipes@tnc.org