482
FNUS73 KGRR 160819
FWSGRR

Spot Forecast for Sequel Burn...MIDNR
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
419 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1400 EDT on May 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (616) 949-5150, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
It will be mild today with high temperatures reaching the mid 70s.
There is a chance of showers and storms beginning late this afternoon
and mainly for tonight.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms late in the day.
Temperature.........74 at ignition...Max 76.
RH..................48 percent at ignition...Min 48 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds southwest at 6 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Southwest winds 5 to 6 mph
                    in the afternoon becoming light. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late
                    in the day.
Mixing height.......5400 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 5400 ft
                    AGL.
Mixing winds........Southwest 8 to 12 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....560 /good/ at ignition. Max...560 /good/.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 4.

TIME (EDT)      2 PM   4 PM   6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT
Sky (%).........54     68     77     84     79     73
Weather cov.....S CHC  S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........              CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Temp............74     75     74     72     66     63
RH..............48     50     53     59     75     84
20 ft wind......SW 6   SW 6   SW 5   SW 3   S 3    SE 5
20 ft wind gust.12     10     10     10     6      7
Mix hgt (ft)....5400   4400   2800   1000   400    400
Mixing wind.....S 10   SW 12  SW 9   SW 7   S 7    S 6
Haines index....4      4      4      3      3      3
Smoke disprsl...560    510    260    70     30     20

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Rain showers
                    likely in the evening. Chance of thunderstorms
                    through the night. Chance of rain showers
                    overnight.
Temperature.........Min 58.
RH..................Max 96 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast around 5 mph
                    through about 2 am, then becoming light after
                    midnight. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms toward daybreak.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........South 6 to 8 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....20 (poor).
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms through mid
                    afternoon.
Temperature.........Max 75.
RH..................Min 55 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming west around 5 mph through
                    mid afternoon, then becoming light late in the
                    day. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms through mid afternoon.
Mixing height.......2900 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........West 5 to 7 mph shifting to the northwest
                    around 7 mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....30 (poor) early in the morning increasing to
                    200 (fair) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Laurens
Requested by...Tom Barnes
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414337.0/GRR
.DELDT 05/16/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL barnest2@michigan.gov