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000
FXUS63 KABR 111741 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1241 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers will occur through the day across far
  northeastern South Dakota and west central Minnesota.

- Northwest winds will gust to around 30 mph today.

- Above normal temperatures this weekend, close to 80 degrees on
  Saturday. Chance of rain Monday afternoon through Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

The aviation discussion has been updated below for the 18Z TAFS.

UPDATE Issued at 923 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Extended pcpn mention a bit in the east this morning, otherwise
forecast is on track.

UPDATE Issued at 623 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

See updated aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

An upper level trough currently over the CWA will slowly track east
today. Shortwave energy will remain over the eastern part of the CWA
before exiting the area this evening. The region will be under
northwest flow tonight and Friday as ridging builds over the Rockies
and the Western High Plains.

At the surface, the region is currently situated between low
pressure to the east and high pressure over the Rockies. A somewhat
tight pressure gradient has kept wind speeds up overnight. Will see
windy conditions through the day as well, with northwest winds
gusting to around 30 mph. The high to the west will settle in over
the central part of the country by this evening, and will remain
there tonight before slowly sliding east of the CWA by late Friday
afternoon. Will again see a tightening pressure gradient on Friday,
especially across central South Dakota where winds will shift around
to the southeast and gust to near 30 mph Friday afternoon. The
chance for rain showers (20 to 35 percent) will continue across the
far eastern CWA today in association with the aforementioned upper
level shortwave energy tracking across that area.

High temperatures today will be in the 50s. Low temperatures tonight
will be in the lower to mid 30s. Highs on Friday will be mainly in
the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

By Friday night we are squarely under an upper level ridge that will
last through the weekend and into at least Monday morning. Monday
afternoon, an upper level low moves into the region bringing a few
days of shortwave energy and rain potential. Models are still not in
agreement as to low track and this is affecting precip totals more
than precip chances.

On precip chances, we can look for widespread 30 to 70% chances
starting overnight Monday and continuing through the day Wednesday.
At the moment, totals look to be around an inch for most of the
forecast area, however, this could change depending on low track.
Higher precip accumulations on Tuesday for areas east of the
Missouri River, but higher QPF amounts spread across the area
Tuesday afternoon/evening and into Wednesday. Chances start to
diminish overnight Wednesday into Thursday. As for storm chances,
strong to severe storms are not expected, but we could get some
lightning and maybe some small hail Monday evening.

Temperatures for the first half of the long term are still expected
to be 15 to 25 degrees above normal, peaking Saturday with highs
near 80. Highs start to drop off Monday as the rain moves in and our
clear skies become cloud filled. Winds will be relatively normal
through the weekend. Tuesday, gusts could get as high as 35 to 40
mph across the area as the low moves over the region. This could
change if the low moves farther north or south. Winds are expected
to diminish after sunset, but will increase again during the day,
although only to around 30 mph, the same on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

The last of the MVFR cigs will linger for a short time at KATY
early this afternoon, but VFR conditions will return here by mid-
afternoon. Otherwise, anticipate VFR conditions will prevail at
all TAF sites through this forecast period. Gusty northwest winds
this afternoon will diminish this evening into the overnight.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...Parkin
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...Vipond