186
FXAK69 PAFG 021445
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
645 AM AKDT Thu May 2 2024


.SYNOPSIS...
The North Slope will remain much colder than normal with areas of
flurries and fog through the weekend.

The West Coast and Western Interior will remain dry, cold and
windy north of the Seward Peninsula through the weekend, while the
Seward Peninsula south will be seasonal temperatures with a chance
of showers today through Fri, then cooling and becoming wetter
over the weekend.

The Eastern Interior will be drier and slightly warmer today than
Wednesday. Fri will remain dry and warm slightly, but will become
windier and warmer near the Alaska Range. Conditions will warm
above normal over the weekend, with a band of rain and snow
stretching across the Northern Interior Fri night and Sat.

At the surface...
An Arctic cold front that lies from Chicken to Nenana to Kaltag to
St Lawrence Is will move north to Eagle to Galena to Nome this
afternoon, then to Circle to Unalakleet on Fri, and to Old Crow to
the Yukon Delta on Sat. There will be isolated rain and snow
showers along this front today that will taper off tonight.
Showers will reinvigorate along this frontal boundary Fri night
and Sat with a band of showers from Arctic Village to Bettles to
the Yukon Delta late Fri night and Sat.

A thermal low pressure trough over the Alaska Range will remain
in place through today, then move just north of the Alaska Range
on Fri. Temperatures will warm to near normal with RH falling to
30% along this trough over the Alaska Range today, then spreading
over the Tanana Valley on Fri and Sat.

Moderate southerly Chinook winds developing across the Alaska
Range late Fri and continuing into Sat before diminishing Sat
night and Sun. This will cause south winds to gust to 30 mph
along the north side of the Alaska Range Fri afternoon along with
warming and drying conditions, then increasing to gusts to 40 mph
Fri night and continuing into Sat, before decreasing Sat night.
This will the bring the near Red Flag conditions from Delta
Junction south Fri late afternoon/evening into Sat, with the Red
Flag conditions most likely on Sat.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
At 00Z. models all initialize 10-20 meters too low on heights
across much of Alaska, meaning that the ridge that lies from SE
Alaska to NW is a bit stronger than models indicate. That will
probably result in a lower chance of showers over much of Nrn AK
today other than SW AK and the Eastern North Slope. Models show
similar solutions aloft through Sun. Will use a blend of models
for feature aloft but lessen the chance of showers over the
Interior and NW AK today and tonight to account for the stronger
than forecast ridge.

Moderate southerly Chinook winds developing across the Alaska
Range late Fri and continuing into Sat before diminishing Sat
night and Sun.

With precipitation, will use a blend of models for areal coverage
and amounts. Little if any precip today through Fri other than
isolated to scattered showers over SW AK and flurries over the
Eastern North Slope. Will see scattered rain and snow showers
developing over the NE Interior Fri night, with scattered to
numerous rain showers over the SW Interior and YK Delta Fri night.
By Sat expect a band of showers stretching from the YK Delta to
Barter Island, with all snow Brooks Range north. Could see several
inches of snow from the Brooks Range North on Sat.

At the surface at 06Z, models verify well. Models show similar
solutions through Sat with fair agreement into Sun. Will use a
blend of the NAM and Canadian models for surface features and
winds.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
An Arctic cold front that lies from Chicken to Nenana to Kaltag
will move north to Eagle to Galena to Nome this afternoon, then
to Circle to Unalakleet on Fri, and to Old Crow to the Yukon
Delta on Sat. There will be isolated rain and snow showers along
this front today that will taper off tonight. Showers will
reinvigorate along this frontal boundary Fri night and Sat with a
band of showers from Arctic Village to Bettles to the Yukon Delta
late Fri night and Sat.

A thermal low pressure trough over the Alaska Range will remain
in place through today, then move just north of the Alaska Range
on Fri. Temperatures will warm to near normal with RH falling to
30% along this trough over the Alaska Range today, then spreading
north over the Tanana Valley on Fri and Sat.

Moderate southerly Chinook winds developing across the Alaska
Range late Fri will continue into Sat before diminishing Sat
night and Sun. This will cause south winds to gust to 25 mph
along the north side of the Alaska Range Fri afternoon along with
warming and drying conditions, with winds increasing to gusts to
40 mph Fri night and continuing into Sat, before decreasing Sat
night. This will the bring the near Red Flag conditions from Delta
Junction south Fri late afternoon/evening into Sat, with the Red
Flag conditions most likely on Sat.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
An ice jam on the Tanana River 6 miles downstream of Manley Hot
Springs is causing minor flooding along Manley Hot Springs
Slough. Flooding is not expected to worsen from what is now
occuring.

on the Yukon River an observer 23 miles upstream of Eagle said
that the Yukon there broke up Tuesday afternoon. Ice began
flowing but within a few hours had stopped flowing and an ice jam
formed. Yukon rose to near mid-summer high levels and was
continuing to rise slowly. Due to current river levels and ice
conditions, the threat for flooding has diminished in the area
around Eagle. However, ice jams can still pose a localized threat
in the areas immediately around where they form.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Flood Watch for AKZ846.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ806-816.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807-810.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811-856-857.
     Gale Warning for PKZ816.
     Gale Warning for PKZ817-851-854.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ850-853.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ852.
&&

$$

JB