693
FNUS71 KAKQ 020812
FWSAKQ

Spot Forecast for Piney Grove - Units 7/28/51...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
412 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on May 02.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service at 757-899-5734.

.DISCUSSION...
Dry and warm weather will prevail today as high pressure
builds across the region with afternoon min RH values 35-40%. A
very light SW wind in the morning will become 5 to 10 mph during
the afternoon. A backdoor front drops across the region on Friday,
with rain chances increasing Saturday.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 88.
Min humidity........36 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......7200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 1 to 6 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1400 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (36100 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................2 early in the morning increasing to 49 in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........29  16  2   2   2   2   3   4   5
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............69  74  78  82  84  86  87  87  87
RH..............78  69  60  49  44  39  38  36  36
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..2   2   3   3   3   4   4   4   4
20 FT wind gust.3   3   5   5   5   6   6   6   6
Mix hgt (kft)...1.2 1.9 2.7 4.0 5.2 6.5 6.7 7.0 7.2
Transp wind dir.SW  S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.1   2   2   2   3   3   5   6   6
LVORI...........4   3   3   2   2   1   1   1   1
ADI.............2   4   8   14  22  31  38  45  49
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..1   3   5   10  15  22  28  33  36
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 61.
Max humidity........93 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south around 5 mph
                    overnight, then becoming light after 3 am.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 5 to 6 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (23900 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (1700 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................2 to 34.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........4   4   3   4   5   6   8   10  12  15  19  23
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............85  82  78  75  71  70  68  67  66  65  63  62
RH..............40  44  52  58  66  68  76  78  84  87  90  93
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   5   4   4   3
20 FT wind gust.6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   8   6   6   5
Mix hgt (kft)...5.0 2.7 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.6   5   5   5   5   5   5   6   6   6   6   6
LVORI...........1   2   2   3   3   3   4   4   5   6   6   6
ADI.............34  2   2   2   2   2   2   2   3   3   3   2
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..24  12  2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 87.
Min humidity........42 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming east 5 to 9 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......7700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 2 to 7 mph increasing to east 13 to
                    17 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2700 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (40900 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................2 early in the morning increasing to 46 in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........22     22     19     28     51     55
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      10     10
Temp............63     68     77     83     86     81
RH..............93     81     62     51     42     49
20 ft wind......SW 4   SW 4   NW 4   N 4    SE 5   E 8
20 ft wind gust.6      6      6      6      8      14
Mix hgt (ft)....600    800    2400   4700   7700   3700
Transport wind..SW 6   SW 6   W 6    W 3    SW 2   SE 13
LVORI...........6      4      2      2      2      1
ADI.............2      6      18     22     11     46
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4      3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..3      4      12     15     15     41
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   FAIR

$$
Forecaster...BUTNER
Requested by...Bobby Clontz
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412967.0/AKQ
.DELDT 05/02/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL bclontz@tnc.org