Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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Spot Forecast for Ballard...US FISH AND WILDLIFE SERVICE
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
106 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1300 CDT on April 30.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (608) 784-8292 if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...Showers and storms move through overnight, followed
by a dry, mostly sunny day on Wednesday. Low RH highlights the
fire weather forecast with values as low as 25-35% likely at the
burn site. Winds will gradually decrease throughout the afternoon,
but blow 20-25mph out of the west for the first half of the day.
This will lead to excellent smoke dispersal after the nighttime
inversion breaks tomorrow morning.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (25-35 percent) then becoming
                    clear (0-10 percent). Rain showers in the
                    evening. Chance of thunderstorms through the
                    night. Chance of rain showers overnight.
CWR.................10 percent increasing to 80 percent in the
                    evening and overnight, then decreasing to 10
                    percent overnight.
Temperature.........Min 50.
RH..................Max 89 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 11 to 15 mph shifting to the west
                    10 to 12 mph after 3 am. Gusts up to 26 mph.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms in the evening. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms overnight.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 16 to 22 mph shifting to the west 14 to
                    21 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (18100 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (6400 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........56  73  86  93  95  90  83  53  33  23  4   2
Weather cov.....    CHC CHC DEF DEF LKY CHC SCH
Weather type....    RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........    CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH
CWR.............10  30  50  80  80  70  40  20  10  0   0   0
Temp............73  72  69  67  65  63  63  60  58  56  53  51
RH..............51  51  57  65  70  78  81  84  87  83  89  86
20 FT wind dir..S   SE  S   S   S   S   SW  SW  W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..11  11  12  13  15  15  15  13  13  12  11  10
20 FT wind gust.19  19  19  22  23  23  23  23  23  21  20  19
Mix hgt (kft)...1.3 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.16  16  18  20  21  22  21  21  18  16  15  14
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
SDspl kt-ft/100018  10  9   10  12  12  12  14  13  10  8   6

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent) then becoming partly
                    sunny (50-60 percent).
CWR.................10 percent.
Temperature.........Max 70.
RH..................Min 36 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 8 to 12 mph shifting to the
                    northwest 8 to 10 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1600 ft AGL increasing to 3900 ft AGL in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 13 to 20 mph shifting to the north 10 to
                    13 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (4900 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (70500 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........2      15     14     35     48     56
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      10     10
Temp............50     52     59     64     67     68
RH..............83     80     55     41     36     36
20 ft wind......W 10   W 9    W 12   NW 12  NW 10  NW 9
20 ft wind gust.18     13     18     19     16     13
Mix hgt (ft)....400    1000   2800   3700   3800   3500
Transport wind..W 13   W 17   W 23   W 22   NW 18  NW 13
Haines index....4      5      5      5      5      5
SDspl kt-ft/10005      15     55     70     61     39

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers in the evening. Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms late in the evening, then rain
                    showers likely and chance of thunderstorms
                    overnight.
CWR.................10 percent increasing to 70 percent.
Temperature.........Min 51.
RH..................Max 73 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 5 to 6 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light, then becoming east 5 to 11 mph
                    overnight. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms in the late evening and
                    overnight.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 6 to 8 mph shifting to the east 6 to
                    14 mph in the late evening and overnight, then
                    increasing to 16 to 20 mph after 3 am.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (14500 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (1900 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........55     59     70     79     85     87
Weather cov.....       CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY
Weather type....NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........              S CHC  S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE
CWR.............10     30     30     30     70     70
Temp............66     62     57     55     53     52
RH..............42     49     62     67     72     72
20 ft wind......NE 6   E 5    E 4    E 5    E 6    E 9
20 ft wind gust.8      6      6      8      11     14
Mix hgt (ft)....1400   400    400    400    500    700
Transport wind..N 8    NE 6   SE 6   E 9    E 13   E 16
Haines index....5      5      5      5      5      5
SDspl kt-ft/100010     2      2      3      6      10

$$
Forecaster...KAA
Requested by...Erik Acker
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412757.1/ARX
.DELDT 04/30/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL erik_acker@fws.gov