586
FXUS61 KBGM 011822
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
222 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather has returned thru Friday. Temperatures will remain
above average for early May.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
200 PM Update...

Clouds are slowly dissipating early this afternoon as drier air
mixes into the boundary layer from aloft. Clear to mostly clear
skies are expected tonight as a surface high slides off to the
east. Southerly winds will pick up overnight and with dry air
mixing in, decided to keep fog out of the grids for the
overnight hours. A cold front moving through as a weak low
passes through to the north early tomorrow morning with
sprinkles added to much of CNY as the front should be mostly dry
but a few isolated showers can not be ruled out.

Ridging begins to build in tomorrow with NW flow advecting in
cooler air so highs will be a little cooler than today. Dry
weather will continue through Thursday night with the ridge
axis approaching.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
320 AM Update...

Quiet weather through the short term period as high pressure
takes control. Light southerly flow and warm advection will
boost temperatures above average with highs into the 70s area-
wide on Friday. Next frontal system will approach from the west
late Friday night into Saturday. This will bring increasing
clouds overnight with showers possible by daybreak.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
320 AM Update...

Weak frontal boundary will push into the area on Saturday.
Scattered rain showers will be possible through the day and high
temperatures will be cooler, dropping into the 60s over most
areas. A second front will quickly push into the Great Lakes
Sunday, with shower chances increasing later Sunday afternoon.
The shortwave trough associated with this system looks to stay
focused to our north, however, and this will mean less upper
level support, and spotty/disorganized shower coverage. Temps
look to be similar to Saturday.

High pressure with dry weather returns once again, just in time
for the start of the workweek on Monday. A warm front to our
south may become the focus for showers heading into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Ceilings have largely scattered out with SYR and RME trying to
hold on to them but given dry air mixing in, the MVFR cigs will
likely scatter out by 19Z. High pressure in place will keep VFR
conditions at all terminals through the rest of the afternoon
and overnight hours. ELM has a low chance of fog tonight with a
cold front approaches and helps keep the low levels mixed. There
is not much moisture with the frontal passage so cigs will stay
high and little to no precipitation keeps vis above 6 miles.

Outlook...

Thursday...VFR Likely.

Friday...Mainly VFR, but late day showers/t`storms possible.

Saturday into Monday...Restrictions possible in showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...AJG
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...MPK
AVIATION...AJG