National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS61 KBGM 201803
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
203 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
It will be cooler and breezy, with scattered rain showers into
early evening. Some snow or graupel may even mix in. A much
welcomed dry stretch of weather will occur Sunday through
Tuesday with seasonable temperatures expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
1 pm update...

A cold front is pushing southeast and through the Catskills and
NEPA by 3 PM. Behind this is light showers which will continue
into the early evening. Temperatures in CNY have already started
to fall. The freezing level drops below 5k ft by 5 PM so some
snow and graupel could mix in before ending. Temperatures are
even cold enough for some lake enhancement at the same time so
some showers could linger in CNY past sunset. Late evening into
the overnight skies clear and winds become light. Low
temperatures fall into the upper 20s and low and mid 30s but
dewpoints are even lower so little valley fog.

On Sunday a weak front and upper level short wave move through
with limited moisture. The northwest flow picks up again but
850mb temperatures are rising so no lake enhancement to add to
the mostly cloudy diurnal clouds. A cooler day with highs
mostly in the upper 40s and lower 50s.

Late Sunday and Sunday night high pressure and drier air builds
in. Skies quickly become scattered to clear. Surface winds only
fall to around 10 mph, so temperatures will only fall into the
upper 20s and low and mid 30s again.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
310 AM Update...

The short term is looking quiet overall as a low amplitude
trough slowly moves off to the east Sunday night into Monday.
Zonal flow with 850 mb temperatures a little below climatology
will make for seasonable temperatures with mostly sunny skies.
Day time temperatures will rise into the 50s to low 60s on
Monday and Tuesday. Did end up blending in a little bit of the
NBM 90th for high temperatures as forecast soundings show dew
points pretty low and models tend to under forecast day time
temperatures on drier days. Dew points were also lowered for the
afternoons as forecast soundings have very dry air above the
mixed layer and with deeper mixing likely, some of that drier
air will make its way to the surface.

Tuesday night there will be a fairly sharp, neutrally tilted
500 mb shortwave dipping into the Great Lakes region that will
bring a chance of rain showers overnight into Wednesday morning.
Temperatures were bumped up from the NBM as forecast models
have pretty good warm air advection through the overnight hours
with plenty of low level moisture as well.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
310 AM Update

The long term is also looking quiet overall with the best
chance for any precipitation being at the beginning on Wednesday
into Thursday. With good agreement in deterministic and
ensembles in timing of the 500 mb shortwave moving through
Wednesday, precipitation chances were kept high Wednesday into
Wednesday evening. Thursday into Friday is a little more
uncertain as the GFS is trying to phase a northern shortwave
with the departing 500 mb shortwave with a potent cold snap
moving in. In this solution the 500 mb heights fall to near 520
dm and 850 mb temperatures below -10C which would support lake
effect snow. The GEFS ensembles are also picking up on the phase
in the overnight runs. The ECMWF and EPS are not pointing at
that solution at all keeping the waves separate with a more
progressive pattern. As of now, given the complexity of the wave
phase and lower performance of the GFS and GEFS with some of
these phases this spring, decided to lean more towards the ECMWF
and EPS and keeping chances of precipitation lower Thursday
into Friday as well as a little bit warmer with temperatures.

Late week into next weekend, there is better ensemble agreement
of a western US trough which would increase the chances of east
coast ridging and SW flow. Temperatures should moderate with
some increasing chances of precipitation into next weekend as we
get warmer and more moist flow.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
130 pm update...

VFR conditions will continue through Sunday afternoon. Scattered
showers are light enough not to cause any restrictions this
afternoon into early evening.

West to northwest winds at 15 kts gusting to 25 until 22z then
becoming light by 03z. After 14z Sunday winds pick up out of the
west at 10 to 15 kts with gusts to 20.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday night through Wednesday night...Occasional restrictions
possible in rain showers.

Thursday...mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JTC/TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...AJG
LONG TERM...AJG
AVIATION...TAC