737
FXUS61 KBGM 031621
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1221 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and warm conditions expected again today, but clouds will
increase this afternoon. A slow moving frontal system will
enter the area early Saturday morning and bring rain showers and
cooler conditions for this weekend. High pressure, with dry and
warm conditions return again on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Only minor changes with the mid morning and noontime updates,
forecast on track.

350 AM Update...

Dry and warm conditions will continue again today with ridging
still overhead. However, ridging will push eastward and upper
level clouds will start pushing in this afternoon ahead of an
approaching frontal system. This system will kick off some
showers that will start to enter our western zones by early
Saturday morning, but the majority of the rain showers should
hold off until the daytime on Saturday. Showers will become more
widespread across the area Saturday afternoon as shortwave
pushes northeast out of the Ohio and into NE PA and Central NY.
Forecast soundings show very little if any instability Saturday
afternoon, so removed any mention of thunder with this morning`s
forecast package.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
315 AM Update...

A slow-moving warm front sweeping east across the area Saturday
night into Sunday will keep showers going. late Sunday into
Sunday evening a cold front will bring more showers and a few
thunderstorms. Both fronts aren`t strong. despite a decent
southwest low level flow of warm moist air pwats peak around
1.2". The upper level flow is zonal so these systems keep
moving. Storm total rainfall for Friday night to Sunday night
will be mostly under and inch. May have to watch to see how much
thunderstorms will drop late Sunday but can easily take a quick
inch. The vegetation green up is taking up more ground moisture
and letting less rain run off.

Saturday night lows will be from the mid 40s to around 50.
Sunday will be cloudy with high from the mid 50s to low 60s.
Sunday night lows mostly in the upper 40s and lower 50s.

Monday and Monday night a secondary cold front could bring some
scattered rain showers. Monday highs from the upper 60s to mid
70s with more sunshine. Monday night lows from the mid 40s in
Oneida County to the mid 50s in the Wyoming Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
315 AM Update...

Timing differences on the next system with the GFS the fastest.
Leaned slower toward the ECMWF and CanNH. A warm front moves
through with showers Tuesday night to Wednesday evening. An
occluded front goes through Thursday with more rain.
Thunderstorms are possible in the afternoons and early
evenings. The upper level flow is mostly zonal but a trough
approaches the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes late in
this period.

High will mostly in the 70s with lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

VFR throughout the TAF period with southerly winds 10 knots or
less. Some lowering of ceilings late in the TAF period.

Outlook...

Saturday afternoon through Sunday night...A couple passing
frontal boundaries will result in scattered showers and
restrictions, especially Saturday night onward. Isolated
thunderstorms will also be possible.

Monday... Mainly VFR.

Monday Night through Wednesday...VFR then increasing chance of
rain and restrictions Tuesday afternoon through night. Embedded
thunder also possible late Tuesday.

Wednesday...

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK/MWG
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...MPK