701
FNUS73 KBIS 111006
FWSBIS

Spot Forecast for W Cross Fence...TNC
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
506 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 CDT on May 11.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Mainly clear skies this morning will become partly clear this afternoon.
High temperatures will warm into the upper 70s, bringing afternoon humidity
values near 26 percent. A west wind of 7 to 14 mph can be expected, with some gusts
near 20 mph this afternoon. Partly cloudy skies will be found tonight. A few isolated
showers and thunderstorms are possible this evening, which may produce some gusty and
erratic winds. Humidity will recover to near 64 percent. West winds will become a
northwest wind around 0300 Sunday morning. This northwest wind will then become north
on Sunday. Temperatures will slightly cool Sunday, although humidity values will be near
25 percent in the afternoon. An isolated rain shower may also return to the fire area
Sunday afternoon.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear this morning becoming partly clear
                    this afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 79.
Min humidity........26 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 7 to 14 mph with gusts up to 20 mph
                    in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......9800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 12 to 22 mph with a few higher gusts through
                    the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (128600 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (167300 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........43  55  58  65  64  55
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   10
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............74  76  77  78  78  79
RH..............34  31  29  27  27  26
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..12  13  13  13  12  12
20 FT wind gust.19  20  20  20  19  19
Mix hgt (kft)...7.1 8.3 8.9 9.4 9.8 9.4
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.21  21  20  20  20  20
Haines index....5   5   5   6   6   6
Dispr kt-ft/1K..129 149 151 160 167 160

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms in the evening.
CWR.................5 percent.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1 until 2200, then 2 until 2400, then 1.
Min temperature.....Around 49.
Max humidity........64 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 12 mph shifting to the
                    northwest 6 to 12 mph after 0300. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
                    in the evening.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 10 to 20 mph shifting to the north 10 to
                    15 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (157600 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to good (97700 knot-ft) late in the
                    night decreasing to poor (3800 knot-ft) early
                    in the evening.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........46  44  43  36  40  45  39  38  35  37  36  29
Weather cov.....                SCH SCH
Weather type....                RW  RW
Tstm cov........                SCH SCH
CWR.............0   0   0   0   5   5   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  10  20  20  10  10  10  10  10  0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   2   2   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............78  77  73  68  64  62  60  59  57  55  54  53
RH..............28  29  35  40  46  50  51  53  57  61  61  64
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..12  10  9   7   8   9   8   8   9   9   9   8
20 FT wind gust.19  15  14  12  13  14  13  13  14  14  14  13
Mix hgt (kft)...9.3 7.0 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW  N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.20  16  10  10  9   13  12  12  12  12  10  12
Haines index....6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   5   5   5
Dispr kt-ft/1K..158 98  7   5   4   5   5   5   5   5   4   4

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny becoming partly cloudy. Slight chance of
                    rain showers in the afternoon.
CWR.................5 percent.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 71.
Min humidity........25 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 6 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......5900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 10 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3400 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (88400 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 6 or low to high potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........23        26        26        37
Weather cov.....                              S CHC
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0         0         0         5
Chc of pcpn (%).0         10        10        20
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............52        58        67        70
RH..............63        47        30        25
20 FT wind......NW 7G12   N 9G13    N 9G14    N 11G17
Mix hgt (ft)....400       1100      4100      5600
Transport wind..N 9       N 12      N 15      N 17
Haines index....6         5         5         5
Dispr kt-ft/1K..3         11        52        83

$$
Forecaster...ANGLIN
Requested by...Chris Gordon
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413713.0/BIS
.DELDT 05/11/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL chris_gordon@tnc.org