613
FXUS64 KBMX 101040
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
540 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 540 AM CDT FRI MAY 10 2024

Current MCS is now south and east of the area, with only some
lingering showers/storms. These showers and storms will linger
through the morning and then move out of the area for the
afternoon. With the clouds and rain leaving by the afternoon, we
may still warm up to the upper 70s to low 80s. A dry night and
cooler temperatures will be in place tonight with generally 50s
across the area. A few northern areas will be in the upper 40s.
There could some isolated areas of fog by sunrise Saturday,
especially closer to bodies of water. On Saturday, mostly sunny
skies will be in place as high pressure builds into the area.
Highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s.

16

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT FRI MAY 10 2024

We will start the long term out with dry weather on Sunday as high
pressure remains over the area, albeit moving to east through the
day. As it moves east a warm front will lift northward through
Monday morning. Over-running showers will develop and begin to
slide into the area by Monday morning. Rain chances will continue
to increase through Tuesday as the warm front slowly advances
through the Southeast. Look for several periods of rain from
Monday through Tuesday night. It will not rain the whole time, but
the chances will remain fairly high through this 48 hour window.

On Wednesday, the surface low associated with the warm front
moving through the will slide east of the area. The associated
cold front will washout, keeping the area in a fairly moist
environment. So rain chances will remain through Wednesday night,
although generally we will only see isolated to scattered
activity. On Thursday, we will see another cold front slide toward
area, although it should remain to our west. A shortwave will
ride along it though and increase rain chances for Thursday.
Temperatures look to be seasonable for the extended period.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 540 AM CDT FRI MAY 10 2024

Showers and storms have mainly exited the area. There are still a
few more hours of rain/storm chances at MGM and TOI. Most of the
convection will be east of the area by 14 to 15z, with skies
clearing through 18z. Winds will be strong this afternoon, before
calming after 4 to 6z. There could be a few isolated areas of fog,
especially with sites close to rivers, but not confident to
include at this time.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Showers and thunderstorms will be ending later this morning with
dry conditions by late afternoon and tonight. Much drier air will
be in place tonight through the weekend. Min RH values today will
be 40-50 percent. 20 foot winds this afternoon will be 7 to 9 mph. Max
RH values overnight will be in the 90 to 100 percent range and we
will need to monitor for isolated areas of fog. Appears though
that the winds should remain 4 to 6 mph and keep the fog from
developing. Min RH values on Saturday will be in the 30s with 20
foot winds of 4 to 6 mph. Wetting rains return Monday night into
Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     80  50  78  53 /  20   0   0   0
Anniston    80  51  78  55 /  30   0   0   0
Birmingham  81  54  79  58 /  20   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  83  55  80  58 /  20   0   0   0
Calera      82  55  78  58 /  30   0   0   0
Auburn      81  56  78  58 /  50   0   0   0
Montgomery  84  56  80  58 /  50   0   0   0
Troy        83  56  79  58 /  70   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16