National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS61 KBTV 201356
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
956 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and breezy conditions will continue across the
region today. Although Sunday and Monday will trend drier, it will
be unseasonably cool, especially Monday. Temperatures will begin to
moderate on Tuesday, with rain chances increasing over the middle of
the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 942 AM EDT Saturday...Steadier precipitation continues
across mainly eastern VT as the cold front pushes into NH/MA
this morning. This precip will come to an end as drier air works
into the region, as evidenced by clearing that has developed
across much of northern NY. Sunnier breaks should be short-lived
though, as satellite already shows clouds increasing across
portions of Ontario and Quebec due to the upper trough and its
associated cold pool aloft. Still anticipate showers to develop
as the upper trough moves overhead this afternoon, especially
over northern/central areas. Lapse rates will be quite steep and
low-levels dry, so any heavier showers will be capable of
producing brief gusty winds and even some pea-size hail or
graupel in addition to a burst of heavier precipitation.
Prevailing precipitation should be rain, but some snow is
expected as temperature wet-bulbs down toward the dewpoint,
which will remain in the 20s to around 30. Highs will be in the
mid 40s to mid 50s. The forecast generally has this all covered,
so only real changes were to sky cover and temperatures and
dewpoints to incorporate the latest satellite and observation
trends. No other changes were needed with this update.

Previous discussion...As a weak frontal boundary continues to
move eastward from the region, a quiet and mostly dry morning is
expected across the region today as drier air moves in behind
the front. A fairly vigorous upper level trough will swing
through this afternoon, bringing additional chances for
scattered showers, with the greatest chances near the
international border. Some of these showers may produce graupel
or some pea sized hail, with model soundings show steep lapse
rates. The limited moisture available will hinder the potential
for measurable precipitation with this system, especially with
some drier air at the surface to overcome. Winds will once again
be on the breezy side tomorrow, with gusts up to 35 mph
possible at the surface. Daytime highs will be on the cool side,
with temperatures in the upper 40s and 50s, with northern New
York and the northeast Kingdom on the cooler side due to shower
activity. Showers will taper off after sunset. Overnight low
temperatures will be in the mid 20s to mid 30s, a few degrees
below climatological normal for this time of year.

Most of the day on Sunday will be dry, with a frontal boundary
moving across the region Sunday evening bringing a chance of some
scattered showers. With a tightening pressure gradient, winds will
increase throughout the day with gusts up to 30 mph possible in the
late afternoon into the evening hours. Daytime high temperatures
will climb into the 40s to around 50, with the broader valleys
nearing the mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 349 AM EDT Saturday...Deep, cold shortwave rotates around
Hudson Bay strong, cold low across Quebec and northern New England
Sunday night. This will deliver a strong cold front with limited
moisture and instability for isold/sct rain/snow showers overnight
with a decent push of colder air with 925mb temps -6 to -10c by 12z
Mon. A chilly, somewhat breezy Monday with deeper valleys in the 40s
and some U30s in Mountain valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 349 AM EDT Saturday...Broad WNW upper low flow as Quebec
shortwave exits and awaiting next upstream shortwave in the Wed time
frame.

Ahead of next system, broad fast SW flow for temperatures to rebound
to near or above seasonable levels for Tue.

All 3 global deterministics/ensembles show another system for
Wednesday with the GFS a stronger outlier with a 520DM Closed Low
and 1004mb Surface while the ECMWF/Canadian show a strong shortwave
with potential weak surface low (1011mb) tracking across the area.
Although latest Canadian has trended toward GFS. Both solutions are
rather progressive with steady precipitation but GFS has upper low
lingering through Thu ngt. Most of the precipitation will be rain
but as colder air aloft comes in late Wed-Wed ngt some mountain
snow/rain mix.

NBM/WPC guidance has 1/3-1/2 inch with locally higher possible
through the period which is manageable across FA according to
long range hydrologic ensembles.

Attm...leaning toward ECMWF/Canadian solutions of gradual improving
conditions Thu-Fri but cooler than normal Thursday...a few degrees
milder than Mon with a rebound to seasonable temperatures on Fri.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...Primarily VFR conditions across all
terminals this morning, with the exception of some MVFR ceilings
at KRUT. Improvement is expected over the next several hours,
with VFR conditions prevailing for most of the forecast period.
Some scattered showers across the region this morning will
continue to diminish for a brief period of mostly dry weather,
before another round of scattered showers develops this
afternoon into the evening (particularly across northern
terminals). Some of these heavier showers could bring brief
periods of reduced visibilities. Westerly winds will pick up
between 15Z and 18Z, with gusts up to 20 knots possible during
the afternoon.

Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Hastings/Kremer
SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...Kremer