Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
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206 FXUS61 KBTV 010733 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 333 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Areas of fog will cause poor visibility this morning especially in low spots away from Lake Champlain. Cloudy conditions will persist today with more chances of light rain tonight into Thursday. Changeable weather will continue into the weekend with a series of weak fronts moving through the region and brief periods of high pressure keeping temperatures near or slightly above seasonal averages. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 331 AM EDT Wednesday...Fog will be the main weather feature this morning with some lower spots away from Lake Champlain being locally dense. Plan on needing a little extra time for your commute this morning. Cloud cover will linger today with weak upslope flow keeping a few showers around mainly over terrain. A quick moving, weak low pressure will drop out of Canada tonight increasing rain chances mainly towards the Canadian border and down the Greens into Thursday; light QPF is expected with northern Greens picking up around 0.33" and sprinkles to generally up to 0.1" elsewhere. With cold air locked well northward, airmasses moving through the region will generally be continental originating from the central Plains. This will keep temperatures well moderated with highs generally in the upper 50s to low 60s across northern New York and northern Vermont with low 60s to around 70 degrees today and Thursday respectively for southern Vermont. Lows tonight will be mild, in the 40s to low 50s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 331 AM EDT Wednesday...Low stratus will linger Thursday night behind a weak shortwave, but any precipitation should move out by then. Lows will fall into the 40s across the region. Ridging will briefly build in for Friday and will keep the weather dry. However, a surface high located over Atlantic Canada will keep the region in easterly flow and will help the low clouds linger into the day. These clouds should break sometime during the day on Friday and the sun may briefly able to come out. However, high clouds ahead of an occluded front will quickly be moving in from the west so any sun will likely be filtered and short-lived. Temperatures should still warm up pretty far, with highs expected to be in the upper 60s and low 70s. This is supported by 925 mb temperatures generally between 8-13 celsius. However, models have been trending down slightly with the temperatures and are now lingering the cloud cover longer so had to bring down highs slightly. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 331 AM EDT Wednesday...Active but relatively unimpactful weather will prevail through the weekend into next week. Overall, any cold air will be locked up to the north and zonal flow will prevent any significant storm systems from developing. This will bring some chances for showers and keep the temperatures at or above normal for the time of year. An occluded front will slowly move through over the weekend and bring some showers to the region. There is still model uncertainty in the timing so kept PoPs chance for now. The models have generally been trending to a later frontal passage, with most GFS and Euro ensemble members now having it pass through Saturday night or Sunday. The trend is keeping Saturday drier, particular across Vermont. Regardless of the timing, QPF will be relatively low and should not pose a flooding threat. A trailing cold front should pass through after and it will bring the chance for a few more additional showers, but it will be falling apart as it moves into the region. Therefore, the showers and cold air behind it look unimpressive. Seasonal and drier weather looks to dominate the beginning of the week before shower chances return mid-week. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 00Z Thursday...Widespread IFR/VLIFR conditions due to low stratus will continue 12-16Z with MPV/SLK lingering longest. VIS will be more variable due to fog ranging 1/2sm-4sm in general with 6+sm most likely at PBG. Worst VIS will be 08-13Z then improving quickly 13-15Z. Then MVFR CIGs likely through 22Z before a chance of VFR through about 05Z. Another weak trough is moving in out of southern Canada and will bring more shower chances 22Z today to 12Z Thursday mainly from the Champlain Valley northeastward. Outlook... Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. NO SIG WX. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Sunday: MVFR. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Boyd NEAR TERM...Boyd SHORT TERM...Myskowski LONG TERM...Myskowski AVIATION...Boyd