336
FXUS61 KBUF 160724
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
324 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered over Hudson Bay will nose southward across
our region through Thursday night. While this will support mainly
fair dry weather over our region, a few showers will still be
possible south and east of Rochester. A poorly organized frontal
boundary will then promote some shower activity Friday into
Saturday. Meanwhile, above normal temperatures and relatively humid
conditions can be expected into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A broad 500mb trough overhead will begin to close off as it slides
east into southern New England overnight. While there may be an
isolated light shower south east of Lake Ontario, the bulk of the
region will be precipitation free. The most impactful weather will
come with the expansion of fog that will has developed overnight
causing areas of reduced visibility, especially south of Lake
Ontario. Otherwise, the cloud cover will limit radiational cooling
tonight with lows in the mid 50s.

A diffuse area of surface high pressure and a mid level ridge will
build into Western NY during Thursday. This will bring mainly dry
weather to the region, although there may be a few showers across
the Finger Lakes and east of Lake Ontario, especially midday into
the afternoon where there will be some instability developing under
the weak ridging aloft. Temperatures will remain above normal, with
highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. The ridge will strengthen
Thursday night, providing fair and rain free weather overnight with
lows mainly in the low and mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A shortwave trough will ripple over a diminishing mid level ridge
this period, promoting more coverage area to showers and a few
thunderstorms, especially in the Friday night to Saturday timeframe.

Instability grows to around 500 to 750 J/KG of MUCAPE and this could
bring a few thunderstorms, mainly later on Friday into Friday
evening.

Just a lingering shower or isolated thunderstorm for the remainder
of Saturday behind the shortwave trough. If some clearing over Lake
Ontario develops, and a lake breeze boundary forms, could see a few
showers forming south of the Lake, in convergence with a general
light southeast synoptic flow.

Similar airmass this period, with 850 hPa temperatures between 10
and 12C through the afternoon will allow for low to mid 70s across
lower terrain, and around 70F for inland higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
To begin this period a mid/upper level low will be off the Carolina
coastline, with weak ridging aloft over our region. Much of the
shower activity will remain to our south, leaving most of Sunday
through Tuesday dry with a fair amount of sunshine. A deeper
shortwave trough will cross the Plains and near our region
Wednesday. Increasing moisture in the southern flow, and warmth
aloft will increase instability, that along with lift ahead of the
incoming trough will greatly increase the chances for showers and
thunderstorms. Later Tuesday night and into Wednesday will be the
most favorable timeframe for showers and thunderstorms this period.

Temperatures several degrees above normal Sunday and Monday, will
become even more above normal ahead of the trough Tuesday
and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR weather holding on east of Lake Ontario where moist cool
northeasterly flow off Lake Ontario is not a factor, however
MVFR conditions are expected to develop at KART late tonight as
well. A different scenario across areas south of Lake Ontario
where low stratus and fog have developed across just about all
areas from the Finger Lakes westward with widespread
IFR/LIFR/VLIFR conditions across the TAF sites south of Lake
Ontario that will persist through within an hour or two after
sunrise, before slow improvement begins.

Conditions will only slowly improve through Thursday morning,
especially south of Lake Ontario. High pressure and drier air will
finally work in through the second half of the day with conditions
improving to VFR from west to east through the afternoon and lasting
into the evening and overnight.

Outlook...

Friday...VFR/MVFR. Showers likely late.
Saturday...Areas of MVFR with showers likely.
Sunday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers.
Monday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Generally light winds will continue through the remainder of the
week. Northeast winds in the 10-12 knot range will produce mainly
light chop on Lakes Erie and Ontario through the remainder of the
overnight. Otherwise, light winds will return Thursday as weak high
pressure builds over the eastern Great Lakes. An offshore flow will
then develop Thursday night and Friday with gentle to moderate
southeasterly breezes in advance of the next system approaching from
the west.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...Apffel/JM/RSH
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...Apffel/JM