Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 162302
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
502 PM MDT Mon Apr 16 2018

.UPDATE...

Updated forecast to issue a High Wind Warning for Carter and
Fallon counties through midnight. Winds in Baker have been gusting
pretty steadily in the low to mid 50 mph range the past few hours.
We did receive a spotter report of a gust to 63 mph on the
Fallon/Carter county line. HRRR/RAP showing a bit of a
strengthening trend through the early evening hours. With not much
margin left elected to go with a warning through the evening
hours. Strongest winds will be in the higher hills and southeast
oriented river valleys. Rest of the forecast on track. Starting to
see a few lightning strikes over Wheatland and Golden Valley
counties along the developing cold front. Could see a few storms
along the cold front as it moves across this evening. Chambers

&&

.SHORT TERM...valid for Tue and Wed...

The latest surface analysis is showing the cold front is on our
doorstep. The front has moved through Lewistown and Bozeman and
should be into Livingston shortly. The front is expected to move
through Billings by early evening and the far eastern areas around
midnight. Some showers and isolated thunderstorms are currently
being observed along and behind the front. We can expect to see
increasing chances for showers this evening with rain and snow
showers after midnight. A slight thunderstorm chance will continue
through mid evening from around Treasure County westward. A
surface low will be situated over south central Montana this
evening then shift southeast into eastern Wyoming by Tuesday
morning. As it shifts south, it will drag some cooler air in
behind the front with increasing snow chances for Sheridan County
Areas down that way could pick up an inch or two late tonight into
Tuesday morning. However, this should be mainly on grassy
surfaces.

A much cooler day will be in store Tuesday. Multi-layer wind
graphics show west to northwest winds from the surface to about
700mb. This will result in a windy day across most of the forecast
area, but especially for locations for areas east of Billings.
West/northwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts around 30 mph will be
likely. Steep mid-level lapse rates along with weak disturbances
aloft will result in continued chances for scattered showers
throughout the day. Temperatures will be much cooler with readings
only in the 40s to lower 50s. High pressure ridging builds back
again across the forecast area Wednesday. This will result in
partly to mostly sunny skies with temperatures a bit warmer with
most locations making it into the 50s. Hooley

.LONG TERM...valid for Thu...Fri...Sat...Sun...Mon...

The next low pressure system is still slated to move across the
southern and central Rockies Thursday into Friday. Model proggs
continue to indicate our CWA will generally remain on the northern
fringe of the moisture and forcing. The Big Horns region in Wyoming
and SE corner of Montana have the best chance of any measurable
precipitation. Temperatures will be cooler than normal through the
end of the work week, generally in the low to mid 50s.

Ridging will start to move into the area for the weekend which
will see temperatures warm into the 60s. However, there is a
strong low pressure system moving across Canada Saturday evening
through Sunday which could produce a few showers over our area. A
better chance of precipitation comes Monday night as a short wave
aided by a favorable upper jet position could lead to widespread
showers. BT
&&

.AVIATION...

Strong southeasterly surface winds (gusts to 45 kts) will
continue in the KBHK/KEKA area, with somewhat lesser winds at
KMLS. These winds will decrease by 07Z. Brisk southwest winds are
also expected at KLVM overnight with gusts to 30-35kts common.
A cold front will move across the forecast area this evening
switching winds to the northwest. Isolated to scattered showers
may develop along the front. Post frontal precipitation and
widespread MVFR/IFR conditions will develop by 12Z Tuesday.
Mountains will become obscured. BT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 038/051 031/054 033/054 035/056 035/064 038/058 035/050
    65/W    21/B    11/E    21/B    00/U    11/B    23/W
LVM 033/045 026/048 028/050 031/055 031/061 033/056 031/050
    63/W    21/B    12/W    21/B    01/U    21/B    23/W
HDN 037/050 031/054 032/056 033/056 033/063 036/058 033/051
    77/W    21/B    01/E    22/W    00/U    11/B    22/W
MLS 036/046 034/052 032/054 035/054 034/061 037/056 034/051
    37/W    12/W    01/B    22/W    00/U    00/B    22/W
4BQ 038/047 033/050 031/052 034/050 033/057 035/055 034/052
    26/W    21/B    01/B    33/W    00/U    00/B    12/W
BHK 030/042 031/049 027/050 032/048 032/055 036/054 034/048
    26/W    22/W    01/B    22/J    00/U    00/B    12/W
SHR 033/042 028/052 030/054 033/052 031/061 033/058 033/054
    58/W    21/B    02/W    33/W    00/U    00/U    12/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...High Wind Warning in effect until midnight MDT tonight FOR
      ZONES 33-37.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings



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