Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 150251
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
851 PM MDT Sat Apr 14 2018

.UPDATE...

Still in the lower 50s in Billings at 8pm for a very pleasant
evening, get out and enjoy it. Very minor forecast update for
cloud cover and precipitation chances based on satellite and radar
trends, lowering both. The only area showing continued
precipitation is the western mountains per webcams. Radar has
shown lower elevation shower activity dissipating over the past
hour. A bit of jet energy and moisture stretching off the Oregon
coast and across southern MT/northern WY will keep snow showers
going in the western mountains through tonight and into tomorrow,
though snow accumulations look light. Low temperatures tonight
will be in the 25 to 35 degree range for tomorrow morning.
Chambers

&&

.SHORT TERM...valid for Sun and Mon...

A weak disturbance will move across the western third of our
forecast area this afternoon through this evening. This will bring
a slight chance for a shower along and west of a Roundup-
Billings-Sheridan line. Otherwise, expect a partly to mostly
cloudy night with milder overnight lows as most places will stay
in the lower to middle 30s, except for 20s near the Dakota
borders.

High pressure ridging will be over the forecast area for most of
the day Sunday resulting in warmer temperatures. Another upper low
and trough move onto the Pacific Northwest coast during the
afternoon and evening which will shift the ridge to the east
allowing for a southwest flow aloft across the area. Another
disturbance will bring a continued chance for showers along with
isolated thunderstorms for areas from about Billings westward
during the afternoon and early evening.

A surface low and Pacific front move across the forecast area
Monday afternoon and evening bringing a chance for showers and
isolated thunderstorms. Instability will be better as models are
actually showing around 400J/KG of CAPE across our central areas.
This will allow for a slightly better chance for some isolated
thunderstorms. Temperatures ahead of the front will be much warmer
with readings in the 60s to near 70 degrees across the central
and western areas. However, high temperatures will also depend on
amount of sun and how quickly clouds move into the area. Hooley

.LONG TERM...valid for Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat...

Overall outlook for the extended period sees a windy, seasonably
cool and unsettled period of weather. Tuesday looks the wettest
and late Wednesday/Thursday the driest.

Strong upper trough centered over SE Alberta will be the primary
influence Tuesday. Models hint at a negative tilt to the trough as
it moves into the high plains, so we may have some intense forcing
with a clear cut back edge to the precipitation band. Some
lingering showers are possible behind the system Tuesday night
into Wednesday along with strong west/northwest winds.

After some brief ridging Thursday, the models agree on an upper
low moving into the Great Basin by Thursday evening. Models agree
this upper low will track across southern Utah and Colorado. As
in previous model cycles, this mornings run has the ECMWF a little
further south than the GFS. So there remains some question as to
how much upper forcing will affect our CWA Thursday night through
Friday evening. For now it appears the best chance of
precipitation remains along the Montana/Wyoming stateline, but
even a slight shift northward in the progged track would make a
notable difference in PoP`s for our area. So this will bear
watching closely.

Look for highs mainly in the 40s to lower 50s, and lows mainly
30s for the extended period...which are nice temperatures for a
slow release of snowpack. BT

&&

.AVIATION...

Light and variable winds expected through the overnight hours.
Westerly winds increase from KBIL westward, especially at KLVM,
through the morning and afternoon. Eastern terminals at KSHR and
KMLS will see light and variable winds tonight and then will see
an increase in SE winds through Sunday afternoon. VFR conditions
prevail at all terminals. Dobbs
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 035/060 037/065 036/048 032/051 029/052 031/049 031/052
    11/B    11/B    45/W    21/N    11/B    23/W    22/W
LVM 033/061 035/060 031/045 028/049 025/050 028/049 028/051
    23/T    23/T    54/W    21/N    12/W    33/W    22/W
HDN 031/060 033/067 033/048 030/050 027/053 030/050 029/052
    01/B    10/B    36/W    21/B    10/B    23/W    22/W
MLS 030/056 033/059 035/045 030/045 028/049 030/048 029/050
    00/B    10/N    45/W    22/W    10/B    11/B    22/W
4BQ 029/056 032/064 034/045 030/045 027/050 030/046 029/048
    00/B    00/N    35/W    31/N    10/B    23/W    32/W
BHK 021/046 027/048 031/041 028/041 024/045 027/044 027/046
    00/U    00/N    25/W    52/W    10/B    11/B    22/W
SHR 030/064 032/071 035/046 029/048 027/053 030/048 029/051
    11/B    10/U    36/W    21/N    10/B    34/W    32/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings



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