Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 170236

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
836 PM MDT Fri Mar 16 2018


Snow was diminishing over southeast Montana this evening, as the
storm system that brought rain/freezing rain and snow continued
to move out. Have gone ahead and canceled the remaining winter
weather highlites, as only minor additional accumulations are
expected. With skies beginning to clear, and recent precipitation,
expect areas of fog to form overnight and continue into Saturday
morning over a good portion of the area. Will monitor for any
Dense Fog Advisories that may need to be issued overnight. Have
updated pops and winds to current trends. The rest of the
forecast remains on track and the previous forecast discussion and
an updated aviation discussion are below. STP


.SHORT TERM...valid for Sat and Sun...

Storm system continues to impact much of south central and
southeastern Montana. Snow accum has been greatly limited by
March sun, and early rains, but has been heavy at times. Reports
of 7-10 inches have been received from around Broadus, with 4-5
inches reported around Birney. Webcams appear mainly wet in most
location, but Ashland and Colstrip appears to have at least 6
inches of new accumulations.

The bulk of the storm system pushes north of the region this
evening. Some dry air if mixing in from the south already, so snow
is diminishing in some southern areas already. Snowfall is
expected to quickly diminish from south to north through late
evening. A brief break in precip is anticipated on Saturday
before another disturbance approaches from the west. Models are
struggling a bit with this second system, with regard to how much
activity come off the mountains. Models do however, agree that
best potential will be over western mountains, and would expect
mostly hit or miss rain/snow showers over the plains Saturday
night. The trof axis finally swings through the region Sunday
morning, bringing slightly improved rain/snow shower potential
across the region Sunday. Shower potential will diminish quickly
behind the trof Sunday night, but isolated potential will

As for temperatures, expect to see highs in the mid to upper 30s
central and east, with 40s west through the short term forecast
period. Lows in 20s are expected across the region. AAG

.LONG TERM...valid for Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...

Not much change to the extended forecast. Broad trof will
continue over the area Monday into early Tuesday. This will keep
temperatures cool and a chance of rain/snow showers in the
forecast. Amplified ridging developing Tuesday afternoon into
Wednesday for warmer and dry conditions. Another broad low
pressure system takes shape off the Pacific coast late Wednesday
and begins to kick energy into western zones by Thursday. Pattern
looks a bit convective with a good chance of snow showers for
mountain locations and mix of rain/snow showers in the foothills.
Additional energy arrives for Friday through the weekend with more
precipitation and cooler air. The weekend system has potential to
be a potent precipitation producer if it holds together. Models
are in disagreement with track and organization of the main low so
will have to see how it plays out, but something to keep a close
eye on if you have outdoor or travel plans next weekend. Chambers



Stratus and fog will persist/develop from around K3HT to KBIL to
KMLS and KBHK north tonight and continue into Saturday. The fog
and stratus will produce IFR to VLIFR conditions. Conditions will
slowly improve during Saturday. Patchy fog is possible across the
remainder of the area into Sat. morning. Otherwise, VFR will
prevail over the remainder of the area. Obscurations will increase
over the Beartooths, Absarokas and Crazys during Saturday. Arthur



    Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri
BIL 024/038 024/038 024/042 027/046 027/050 030/053 032/050
    22/O    32/O    22/W    21/B    10/U    12/W    23/W
LVM 024/045 024/042 024/043 026/046 026/051 031/054 032/049
    13/O    43/O    33/W    32/W    11/B    13/W    35/W
HDN 017/041 021/038 019/041 021/045 020/050 023/052 026/049
    21/B    22/O    22/W    21/B    10/U    02/W    24/W
MLS 017/036 022/034 020/034 016/036 017/040 020/040 024/040
    51/B    22/S    22/J    21/B    10/U    01/B    23/W
4BQ 016/041 023/037 022/036 020/041 021/046 024/049 028/047
    31/B    13/O    22/J    21/B    10/U    01/B    23/W
BHK 015/036 022/033 021/033 016/036 017/040 020/040 025/039
    51/B    23/S    32/J    21/B    10/U    00/B    23/W
SHR 019/047 023/039 021/040 022/044 022/050 026/054 030/050
    11/B    23/O    23/W    22/J    10/U    01/B    23/W




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