Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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229
FXUS62 KCAE 042036
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
436 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms have moved into the area and will
continue through early next week with showers and thunderstorms
possible each day. Dry conditions should prevail for midweek,
with a return of showers and storms possible again by Friday.
Expect well above normal temperatures each day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Update...
Decreasing cloudiness noted over the western forecast area (FA),
with convective coverage currently limited to the eastern FA.
Adjusted POPs and temps to account for current and expected
near term conditions. Latest guidance indicates some convective
development possible over portions of the central FA along a low
level convergence boundary in the near term. Later tonight, as
an upper impulse approaches, additional development possible
elsewhere, favoring the northern FA late tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Sunday and Sunday night: An upper shortwave is forecast to
continue trekking eastward through the day Sunday and is
expected to be offshore by Sunday night. At the surface, high
pressure offshore is expected to drift eastward, but still aid
in keeping plenty of moisture in the area, with PWAT values
around 1.5". A relative low in shower and thunderstorm activity
is forecast due to the shortwave passing to our east. However,
a weaker shortwave is anticipated to move through the region,
resulting in scattered shower and thunderstorms, particularly in
the afternoon. With weaker support, we`re not expecting the
activity to be as widespread as today or Monday. Temperatures
are expected to be near average once again during the day, but
relatively warm overnight.

Monday and Monday night: Another shortwave is forecast to move
across the area on Monday. This shortwave looks to be a bit more
pronounced, leading to an uptick in shower and thunderstorm
activity for the day, especially in the afternoon and evening.
The upper air dynamics are anticipated to be similar to today,
limiting the severe threat. PWATs are anticipated to increase
some again, which could lead to locally heavy rainfall again.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The upper shortwave is expected to move out of the area Tuesday,
taking the precipitation along with it. That said some scattered
showers are possible during the morning before they exit the
area. Broad ridging then builds back over the area, which will
aid in a midweek warm up. Temperatures are forecast to warm to
well above average by Wednesday and Thursday. A larger scale
trough is anticipated to move toward and through the region for
the end of the week, bringing a cold front along with it. Model
guidance does differ in the timing of its passage, which would
affect how warm we get on Friday. Regardless of the timing,
chances of precipitation returns with this system.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Most of the earlier convection has shifted northeast of
terminals with VFR conditions returning to all terminals and
expected to continue through 00z. Some additional showers or
possible thunderstorms may return overnight after 03z but will
address this potential in the 00z forecast. Generally light
southeast to southerly winds through sunset with VFR conditions
expected. Abundant low level moisture in place will provide
increased potential for stratus/fog development again overnight.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
Fog and stratus possible through at least Monday with abundant
low level moisture in place. Showers and thunderstorms with
associated restrictions possible Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$