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000
FXUS64 KCRP 180516
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1216 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

▶ Marginal Risk for Severe Thunderstorms across Webb/La Salle
  counties tonight and tomorrow

▶ High risk of rip currents through Thursday morning

▶ Moderate to high probability (50-90% chance) for triple digit
  Heat Indices Thursday afternoon across the Brush Country

Had a few showers this morning across portions of the Brush Country,
Coastal Plains and Coastal Bend. This mornings sounding revealed
PWAT`s above the 75th percentile at 1.68" and some operational
models are picking up on a band of PVA stretched across the Southern
Plains that is likely responsible for the elevated convection today.
Persistence is expected over the next several days ahead of this
weekend`s front with quasi-zonal flow over much of the US including
South Texas. Environmental conditions out west support a Marginal
Risk for severe thunderstorms tonight through tomorrow across the
western Brush Country. Despite low PoP`s any storms that form can
become strong to severe with CAPE > 2,000 J/kg, Effective Bulk shear
39 knots and minimal CIN. Damaging wind and large hail are the main
hazards expected.

Chances for additional precipitation is low (< 30%) through the
short term period. There`s a moderate to high probability (50-90%
chance) for heat index values to climb into the low 100s across
western portions of the CWA today and tomorrow. Overnight lows will
be in the low to mid 70s across the region. Have added patchy fog
over the waters and Coastal areas as there`s a low to moderate (20-
40% chance) for visibilities of 1 nm or less overnight tonight and a
low chance (<20% chance) tomorrow night.|

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Key Messages:

- Scattered Thunderstorms Saturday and Saturday Night

- Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall Saturday for the northern
counties of South Texas.

A cold front expected to move southward across the Plains before the
beginning of the period, originally in response to an upper
disturbance moving across the US/Canadian border, is predicted to
stall north of the CWA/over central TX (yet the GFS moves it farther
south than the ECMWF and NAM). This stall would not be surprising
given the quasi-zonal upper pattern over much of the CONUS. In
addition, another upper system is predicted to enter the
southwestern CONUS Saturday. The front is not expected to move
across the CWA until Saturday night (GFS/ECMWF), when this latter
system moves eastward across the region. Owing to persistent
onshore flow, PWAT values are expected to be above normal in
advance of the front (GFS deterministic). The combination of the
forcing associated with this latter upper disturbance, the front,
and copious moisture is expected to result in isolated/scattered
convection Saturday, and scattered/numerous convection Saturday
night. Given the copious moisture and the probable transition of
the environment somewhat supportive of efficient rainfall
production (moist vertical column and low/moderate CAPE), except
for 0-6km vertical shear, concur with WPC regarding a Marginal
Risk for excessive heavy rainfall Saturday night. The limiting
factor appears to be whether 1-hr rainfall rates will reach the
most recent FFG threshold of around 3 inches. Expect the front to
move offshore Sunday morning. Although precipitation will
dissipate after frontal passage, only slightly drier conditions
are expected. The combination of increasing moisture and a weak
upper disturbance may result in isolated showers Tuesday over
portions of the Coastal Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1041 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Poor aviation conditions can be expected overnight across most area
terminals with a mixture of MVFR to IFR levels (except at LRD). A
few showers and elevated thunderstorms are moving through the
region this evening in response to a passing mid level disturbance.
Rain chances over area terminals however are minimal, therefore
have opted for leaving it out of the TAFs for now, but a brief
thundershower cannot be completely ruled out. The rain should
shift eastward through the night and end by Thursday as the
disturbance leaves the area. Conditions are forecast to improve
Thursday afternoon with sites returning to VFR levels, before
falling back to MVFR across the eastern terminals after sunset.
Winds will remain light out of the east and southeast tonight,
then increase above 12 knots and briefly become gusty during the
afternoon hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 314 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

A weak to moderate onshore flow will continue today and persist
through the remainder of the week. Patchy Sea Fog is expected to
develop this evening and again tomorrow night. An upper level
disturbance, cold front, and copious moisture will contribute to
scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms Saturday night.
Anticipate at least Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions after
frontal passage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    73  87  73  86 /  20   0   0   0
Victoria          73  88  71  86 /  20  10   0  10
Laredo            75  98  74  97 /  20  10  10  10
Alice             73  92  71  91 /  20   0  10  10
Rockport          72  83  72  83 /  20  10   0   0
Cotulla           75  98  73  94 /  10  20  10  10
Kingsville        73  89  71  89 /  10   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       73  82  74  83 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 7 AM CDT Thursday for TXZ345-442-443-
     447.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BF
LONG TERM....WC
AVIATION...ANM/88