Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 270022
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
822 PM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
-Mild with periods of light rain through Wednesday night
-Turning breezy & cooler with rain ending Thursday into Friday
-Showers to start the weekend; drying out for Easter Sunday

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Scattered rain continues to progress eastward and weaken as it
crosses the Allegheny plateau. Areas in northern PA could see
some gusty winds associated with the southerly flow ahead of the
approaching cold front. Rain coverage trends become rather
spotty tonight before consolidating over south central/southeastern
PA by daybreak Wednesday. Temperatures tonight are expected to
say mild in the mid to low 40s which is 10 to 20 degrees above
normal for the end of March.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A weakening cold/occluded front is progged to push into the
region tomorrow. Falling heights and surging pwats ahead of
this feature will keep the rain showers in forecast with max
POPs across the eastern portion of the forecast area. Wednesday
will be the warmest day of the week with max temps in the
50-60F range. A few showers linger into Wednesday night with
the main focus for steadier rain shifting into extreme southeast
PA with a low pressure system having developed in Georgia and
South Carolina.

This low will track inland along the coast and bring a stream
south easterly flow and moisture briefly into the region
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Model guidance has
trended east with the track of this storm over the past few
cycles, with a 40% chance of greater than 0.50 inch in 24 hours
ending 18z Thu confined to far eastern Lancaster county (higher
probs east of there). The resulting rain will struggle to reach
any further west than the lower Susquehanna valley.

Temperatures on Thursday will also begin to cool behind the
departing cold front giving us near normal temperatures to end
the week. Highs Thursday will be in the low 50s to upper 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Northwest winds will pick up on Fri as the pressure gradient
tightens behind the departing low pressure system. Wind gusts up
to 40 mph are progged across the southeast and Laurel
Highlands. With high pressure building in, large scale
subsidence will lead to mostly sunny skies and low dewpoints Fri
afternoon. The combination of gusty winds and min RH values
near 30% could present fire weather concerns, but temperatures
in the 50s and marginal fine fuel moisture may be limiting
factors.

A weak wave of low pressure tracking across PA could
produce a bit of light rain Sat or Sat night. Beyond that, a
somewhat more substantial rainfall is possible early next week
associated with a stronger low approaching from the midwest.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue for the next few hours, but all
guidance does indicate that MVFR ceilings will begin to work
their way in across the Lower Susquehanna Valley into the
late morning. At the same time, high clouds will continue to
move in from the west and will gradually lower through the day
with MVFR conditions expected for western sites by the late
afternoon/early evening. VFR conditions will hang on the longest
at AOO and UNV, but lower ceilings will arrive for those sites
by 00Z Wednesday.

Ceilings will continue to lower into the evening, and the
HREF/SREF suggest a 60-90% chance of IFR ceilings for most of
the area after 00Z. LIFR ceilings also appear likely after 06Z
for MDT and LNS. Showers will begin to move in from the west
this evening and will slowly spread eastward into Wednesday
morning.

Low level wind shear will continue for western sites into the
early afternoon as a 40 to 50 knot southeasterly low level jet
remains in place.


Outlook...

Wed...Rain/low cigs possible.

Thu...Lingering rain and reduced cigs possible S/E.

Thu night-Fri...Improving conds.

Sat...Light rain possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl/Bowen
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl/Bowen
LONG TERM...Fitzgerald/Colbert
AVIATION...Steinbugl


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