Text Products for ESF Issued by CTP

Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS State College, PA
Versions: 1 2 3

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Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
857 AM EDT Sat Mar 30 2024

...OVERALL FLOOD RISK IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR EARLY
APRIL...

During the winter and spring, the National Weather Service issues a
series of Flood Potential Outlooks. These outlooks estimate the
potential for river flooding (not flash flooding) across Central
Pennsylvania based on a current assessment of the hydrometeorological
factors that contribute to river flooding.

This outlook does not address the severity or extent of future river
flooding. It is also important to note that heavy rainfall can
rapidly cause river flooding any time of the year, even when overall
river flood potential is considered low.

This outlook covers the Susquehanna River Basin including the West
Branch, Juniata, and much of the Middle and Lower Susquehanna
Valley. Also covered are portions of the Upper Allegheny and
Monongahela Basins, including areas in Warren, McKean, Somerset and
Cambria counties.

The flood potential outlook for the period from Thursday, March 14th
through Thursday, March 28th, 2024 is NEAR AVERAGE. Here are the
hydrometeorological factors that went into this outlook:

Current flooding...None.
No flooding is occurring in the region at this time.

Recent precipitation..Above average.
Precipitation over the past 30 days has ranged from 0.5" to 2.0"
above average across Central Pennsylvania.
For the latest precip departures, please see
www.weather.gov/marfc/Precipitation_Departures.

Snow conditions...None.
Snow data and information sources include the NOAA/NWS Operational
Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center (www.nohrsc.noaa.gov)...the US Army
Corps of Engineers...NWS Cooperative Observers...the Community Rain,
Hail and Snow Network (COCORAHS) and others. Snow depth and basin
average water equivalent estimates can be seen at
www.weather.gov/marfc/Snow and www.nohrsc.noaa.gov.

River Ice...None.
Follow river ice conditions at https://www.weather.gov/ctp/riverice.

Stream flow conditions...Near to below average.
Streamflows are running below average for all of Central Pennsylvania
outside of the Lower Susquehanna Valley, where they are near
average.
For current streamflow conditions, please visit
waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/rt. Real time water data is available from
the United States Geological Survey by visiting
http://water.usgs.gov.

Soil moisture conditions...West of the Susquehanna Valley, soil
moisture is near to slightly above average. For the Susquehanna
Valley and points east, soil moisture is above average.
The long term Palmer Drought Severity Index is used to infer deep
soil moisture conditions. The latest chart can be found at
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_
monitoring/palmer.gif. For more information, visit
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/ and then click on
U.S. Monitoring.

Ground Water...Near to slightly above average.
To see groundwater levels, visit waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/gw.

Reservoir Conditions...Near to slightly above average.

Future Weather Conditions...
According to the NWS Climate Prediction Center`s (CPC), the upcoming
6-10 day period should lean towards below average temperatures and
below average precipitation, while the 8-14 day period should lean
towards above average temperatures and below average precipitation.
Visit www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ to view the latest CPC outlooks.

Summary of conditions impacting the flood potential for the period
from March 28th to April 12th, 2024:

Current Flooding...None.
Recent Precipitation...Above average.
Snow Conditions...Average.
River Ice...None.
Stream Flow Conditions...Near to below average.
Soil Moisture Conditions...West of the Susq Valley, soil moisture is
near to slightly above average. For the Susq Valley and points east,
soil moisture is above average.
Ground Water...Near to slightly above average.
Reservoir Conditions...Near to slightly above average.
Future Weather Conditions...The 6-10 day period should lean towards
below average temperatures and below average precipitation, while the
8-14 day period should lean towards above average temperatures and
below average precipitation.

Again, the overall flood potential for Central Pennsylvania over the
next two weeks is NEAR AVERAGE.

This is the final outlook for the 2024 Winter/Spring season.

Additional hydrometeorological information can be found by
visiting the NWS State College webpage at http://weather.gov/ctp.

$$

CJE
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
