Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY
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520 FXUS65 KCYS 270432 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 1032 PM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Significant mountain snow is expected in the Snowy and Sierra Madre ranges, with 1-2 feet likely in the Snowys from this evening through Sunday morning. Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Warnings have been issued. - Confidence is increasing in snow levels lowering sufficiently for heavy snow above 7500 feet over the South Laramie Range and I-80 Summit. However, uncertainty remains with the overall travel impacts due to the heaviest snow occurring during the daytime hours. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued. - Widespread rain and high-elevation snow will impact a large portion of southeast Wyoming and the western Nebraska Panhandle through Sunday morning. Rain may change to snow as far east as the I-25 corridor into Cheyenne Saturday night, with minor accumulations possible on grassy surfaces. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 314 PM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Minimal changes made to the short term forecast through Sunday afternoon. We are still looking at rain showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into evening across southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska with snow in the mountains. Late tonight, rain will begin to transition over to snow at elevations as low as 7500 feet. Opted to upgrade the Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Weather Advisory in the South Laramie Range with potential snow totals being 5 to 11 inches, but the heaviest snow is most likely to fall during the day Saturday. Therefore, with the high sun angle due to it being late April, any snow that does fall will likely begin melting relatively soon after. In addition, if this area does not start receiving more substantial snowfall overnight, then this area will also have to overcome warmer temperatures before they`ll fully transition to snow Saturday afternoon. The 12Z HREF ensemble shows the heaviest snow ending near the Summit around 6 PM, but light snow may still continue over the next few hours. It is still uncertain whether the snow will get into the Cheyenne Ridge area. HiRes guidance has rain potentially transitioning to snow along the Cheyenne Ridge between 2 PM Saturday and 7 PM Saturday. While there will be decently strong easterly, upslope winds with colder air, since this timeframe is during the day, the likelihood that there will be any accumulation outside of elevated and grassy surfaces is low. Looking at the Snowy and Sierra Madre Mountains, the winter weather headlines issued remain in effect still expecting 6 to 12 inches in the Sierra Madre Mountains, and 1 to 2 feet in the Snowy Mountains, which is consistent with easterly winds and the Sierra Madre Mountains being shadowed by the Snowy Mountains. Saturday evening and overnight as the low pressure system ejects eastward, wraparound moisture sticks around along the eastern Nebraska panhandle, resulting in the potential for an additional 0.3-0.6 inches of rainfall. Across the High Plains, chances for precipitation taper off quickly Sunday afternoon and evening, but areas west of the Laramie Range are expected to receive an additional round of light precipitation that will bring snow mainly above 8500 feet, and rain below. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 314 PM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Quasi-zonal flow aloft early next week will lead to daily chances for precipitation along with warmer temperatures compared to this weekend. A surface low passage to the north across northeast WY could lead to a brief bora-wind event Tuesday morning. Local in- house guidance suggests near 50% chance of wind gusts exceeding 58 mph along the I-25 corridor from Cheyenne to Douglas strengthening mslp gradients across the Laramie Range and favorable downward omega fields spreading across the adjacent foothills with the passage of the trough axis. While likely to be short-lived, this event may need to be monitored for potential high wind headlines. Headed into the middle of next week, forecast uncertainty grows quite a bit with the progression of a shortwave trough dropping out of the PacNW behind a larger scale upper level low near the Northern Great Plains. NBM interquartile range for high temperatures shows a 20F degree spread from Wednesday onward. While the deterministic GFS and Euro appear to be in line with the progression of the shortwave trough passage mid-to-late next week, cluster analysis shows multiple camps of ensembles with varying timing in the trough`s progression drastically effecting environmental conditions and focus points for areas of precipitation. With the high degree of uncertainty, current forecast highs from Wednesday onward could swing a few degrees in either direction from the current forecast of near normal for early May. Right now, decided to lean a little towards the cooler side of guidance with a trend towards a more amplified wave pattern and slower progression of the north-central CONUS trough. Additionally, slightly increased PoPs from the latest NBM though noteworthy QPF totals are not expected at this time. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1028 PM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Starting to see the effects of the next in the series of upper level lows moving through tonight into Saturday. Rain has begun out near KRWL and KLAR. So far only MVFR conditions being observed. But rain is expected to turn over to snow the next few hours and IFR conditions expected to be common west of the Laramie Range. Short range guidance showing lowering conditions this overnight at KRWL...KLAR and eventually KCYS as snow develops and continues through the day Saturday. For the Nebraska Panhandle...look for lowering conditions later Saturday morning...more after 12Z that once it develops...will last through the day. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT Sunday for WYZ112. Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM MDT Sunday for WYZ114. Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MDT Saturday night for WYZ116. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...LEG LONG TERM...MB AVIATION...GCC