Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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519 FXUS63 KDDC 130103 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 803 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue Sunday night into Monday morning. - Strong north winds expected Monday afternoon. - Another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms is expected Wednesday and Wednesday night. && .UPDATE... Issued at 803 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 565 dm midlevel cyclone was over SW KS as of 8 pm. For most of the afternoon, scattered thunderstorms have favored the edges of the DDC CWA, where airmass was less overturned from this morning`s outflow. Bulk shear is virtually nonexistent beneath the synoptic low, as such convection is poorly organized. With a reservoir of MU CAPE near 1000 J/kg, a linear convective complex has organized on the NW side of the synoptic trough, from Wakeeney to Garden City at 8 pm. This complex of storms is expected to make southeast progress the next few hours, being propelled essentially by its own outflow. Locally heavy rainfall and wind gusts to near 50 mph are expected. 565 dm low is expected to be over the northeast zones near Hays at midnight, and then central Kansas by 7 am. Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur through tonight as forcing for ascent continues to interact with modest instability. Pops gradually decline from west to east through sunrise. Short range guidance suggests the boundary layer may saturate through sunrise Monday, especially north and east of DDC, for areas of stratus, drizzle or fog. The synoptic cyclone will be in no hurry to leave Kansas; as such, scattered wraparound rain showers may continue across eastern zones much of Monday, as shown by ECMWF guidance. North winds will be noticeably strong Monday, and increased the wind grids to the 90%ile of the NBM. Wind gusts of 30-35 mph are expected. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 238 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 An upper level cold pool (-16 to -18C at 500mb) was entering extreme western Kansas this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms developing near the Colorado state line will increase in areal coverage through the afternoon. Other storms will pop up just about anywhere with daytime heating given the lack of a strong mid level capping inversion. The storms in far southwest Kansas will form a cold pool this evening after evolving into a line. The line could progress as far east as Dodge City and Coldwater before weakening. The heaviest part of the line will tend to shift southward as the highest instability resides across Oklahoma. Given the decent lapse rates across the far southwest and presence of a surface boundary, along with the -17C cold pool, weak landspout tornadoes may occur before the storms evolve into a line. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 238 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 The next item of concern is thunderstorm chances Tuesday night through Wednesday night. An upper level disturbance will approach CO/WY Tuesday evening. Ahead of this feature, air mass recovery will take place on the western high plains (to the west of Kansas) Tuesday evening. Expect high temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s Tuesday. Thunderstorms will likely form to the west of Kansas and then congeal into a large cluster of storms Tuesday night. These storms will be fed by a 35 kt low level jet across western Kansas Tuesday night, with the best chances of storms with heavy rains along I-70 and possibly as far south as Garden City and Dodge City. This overnight convection will push an effective frontal boundary southwest Kansas so that high temperatures should fall into the 70s on Wednesday. As the disturbance approaches Wednesday, it is likely that additional heavy rains will develop south and east of southwestern Kansas where the warm sector instability will reside. As a result, any rains across southwest Kansas may be lighter in nature by Wednesday. However, some of the model ensemble means keep the warm sector farther north Wednesday, with a weaker storm cluster Tuesday night. If this happens, as shown by the GEFS and ICON ensembles, then then heavy rain chances would be delayed until Wednesday and Wednesday night. The bottom line is that there is a lot of uncertainty in the extent and timing of any t-storm clusters in the Tuesday night to Wednesday night time frame, as is typical during the warm season; and every ensemble suite has a different solution. That said, for those interested in a probabilistic outlook, the preferred ECMWF ensemble mean indicates 10-30% chances for .5" of greater rain in central Kansas Tuesday night and 30-40% chances of .5" or greater across central Kansas Wednesday and Wednesday night, with lesser chances farther southwest. Drier weather is expected by Thursday and into the weekend. The upper level jet is expected to retreat northward into the northern plains through the weekend, with warmer and mainly dry weather across southwest Kansas. That said, there have been dramatic day to day changes in the various model ensembles for this time frame so that this dry forecast is made with below average confidence. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 456 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 KDDC radar scattered showers and thunderstorms near the airports at 2145z, and this trend will continue through 06-09z Mon. Kept mention of showers and thunderstorms minimized in this set of TAFs, with some mentions of VCSH/VCTS, with low confidence of any direct impacts at terminals. Closed cyclone is expected to be over north central Kansas at 12z Mon, when shower coverage will decrease from west to east. Consensus of short term models suggests a period of IFR stratus and reduced visibility in BR/FG for several hours around 12z Mon, most likely at HYS/DDC, and followed suit in the TAFs. Light and variable winds tonight will trend light NWly through 12z Mon behind the departing system. After 18z Monday, expect VFR to return to all airports, with increasing north winds, gusting 25-30 kts. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Turner SHORT TERM...Finch LONG TERM...Finch AVIATION...Turner