779
ACUS01 KWNS 180047
SWODY1
SPC AC 180046

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Valid 180100Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL TO
EASTERN GULF COAST AND A PART OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible through early morning
across parts of the central to eastern Gulf Coast States with a
threat for a couple tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail.
Isolated to scattered severe wind gusts remain possible across parts
of the northern Great Plains this evening.

...Central to eastern Gulf Coast...
Primary near-term tornado and wind threat will exist with a couple
clusters across parts of the FL Panhandle and north FL into far
southern GA this evening. While low-level flow in the wake of this
leading activity will remain weak overnight, strengthening 700-mb
warm/moist advection attendant to the next upstream shortwave
impulse appears to be aiding in convective development just offshore
of the upper TX Gulf Coast. With a plume of large buoyancy
persisting across the north-central Gulf, nosing into the central
Gulf Coast region as sampled by the 00Z LIX sounding, scattered to
widespread thunderstorm development is expected overnight over the
northern Gulf. This will initially affect south LA and then spread
east across the central Gulf Coast. Strong mid to upper-level
southwesterlies will promote a mixed threat of large hail and
damaging winds. Consensus of short-term CAM guidance suggests
convective mode will predominately consist of linear clustering,
which should tend to limit hail size in a conditionally favorable
environment for sig severe hail.

...Northern Great Plains...
Sporadic severe wind gusts will remain possible through the rest of
the evening within an arc of high-based/moderate-topped
thunderstorms from southern Manitoba to northwest SD. A
strengthening low-level jet and frontal forcing should result in
this potential persisting at least a couple hours beyond dusk. But a
rapid nocturnal increase in MLCIN, amid the weakly buoyant air mass
ahead of it as sampled by 00Z ABR sounding, will result in a
diminishing severe wind threat overnight.

...Mid-South and south-central TX...
Ahead of the primary shortwave impulse over eastern OK that is
embedded within the broader southern-stream, positive-tilt trough,
isolated to scattered thunderstorms will probably persist through
much of the night across parts of the Mid-South region. With a
pocket of enhanced moderate buoyancy over the Ark-La-Miss vicinity,
it is plausible that a couple storms might produce marginally severe
hail and locally strong gusts given moderate speed shear above 800
mb per the 00Z LZK sounding.

A few stronger storms have developed over a portion of the Edwards
Plateau region ahead of the final shortwave impulse embedded within
the broader trough. Isolated severe hail/wind risk should persist
for a couple more hours before quickly subsiding as MLCIN increases
after dusk.

..Grams.. 05/18/2024

$$