Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 260524
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1224 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible this evening across
eastern KS/western MO. A brief stronger storm is possible with 60
mph winds and hail up to the size of quarters.

- Hard freeze expected across the region Tuesday night into
  Wednesday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

993 mb area of low pressure over eastern Kansas is expected to lift
northeast into the western Great Lakes region tonight. Low
level warm air advection has lead to temperatures warming into
the upper 50s to lower 60s. Widespread upper level cloud cover
has slowed low level warming, but small area of clearing
immediately ahead of approaching cold front will allow for
additional warming and increased instability. As mixing has
deepened, low level moisture has mixed out with dew points
falling into the mid- and upper 40s. With limited warming and
moisture, instability is expected to be limited to 500 J/kg or
less. Great speed and directional shear with veering profiles,
though strongest speed and directional shear is concentrated
above the instability. Expect showers and thunderstorms to
develop late this afternoon/evening as near surface increases as
cold front approaches from the west. Could see a pulse strong
storm through the evening hours, but as the storms move east of
I-35, expect storms to outrun the instability.

Cold front is expected to move east through the evening hours.  Wrap
around precipitation may lead to precipitation developing behind the
front across northern Missouri. In the cooler airmass, could see a
wintry mix though the short duration of expected precipitation and
warm surface temperatures should severely limit snowfall
accumulations.

Cooler airmass along with lingering stratus is expected to lead well
below normal temperatures Tuesday into Tuesday night.  925 hpa
temperatures moderate towards 0C throughout the day, but dry nature
of airmass will allow temperatures to fall as skies clear and winds
decrease.  High confidence forecast in widespread hard freeze across
the region Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, and will likely
need a freeze headline as event draws near.

Fairly nice warmup to above normal temperatures Tuesday into Friday
as west to southwesterly flow develops across the central US.
Shortwave moving across the Northern Plains could lead to some light
shower activity Friday night across central and eastern Missouri,
though better chances remain farther to the north. Second trough is
expected next week, though trajectory of this wave is up for debate
with some solutions (ECMWF) keeping the system north in Canada while
other solutions are farther south across the Upper Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

A strong storm system will move over the area tonight, bringing
MVFR to IFR ceilings and a light rain/snow mix in the predawn
hours. With low tracking very close to the terminals, winds will
initiatlly be relatively light. As the low lifts to the
northeast, winds will trend from the northwest and increase with
gusts around 25kts. Conditions are expected to improve this
evening as drier air builds southward, eroding the lower clouds.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...CDB


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