Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA
961 FXUS66 KEKA 111106 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 406 AM PDT Sat May 11 2024 .SYNOPSIS...A Pacific ridge of high pressure will continue to bring warm and dry conditions through today with cooler temperatures at the coast; however, still expected to be above average. A cooling trend is expected for Sunday and Monday with warmer temperatures returning for the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION...A high pressure system in the Northeast Pacific will continue to influence offshore flow today, creating warm and dry conditions for Northwest California. But, the upper level ridge is forecast to begin to flatten through today. Due to the flattening of the ridge, a southerly surge of winds could develop south of Cape Mendocino bringing the potential for some stratus along the North Coast early this morning, indicated by NBM and HREF. However, confidence is low due to a persistent large scale subsidence from the dominating ridge. With the weakening of the ridge and offshore flow today, temperatures at and near the coast will be cooler than yesterday, yet still above average for this time of year by remaining mostly in the lower to mid 60s. Farther inland, temperatures are forecast to remain in the upper 80s and potentially up to 90 in the warmer valleys. Tonight and into Sunday, a trough will move closer to the area ushering in a deeper and more widespread marine layer by Sunday morning. Drizzle may occur along the coast, as a result. Temperature-wise, inland areas are expected to drop into the low to mid 80s. A shower or two is possible over the higher terrain of eastern Trinity County. Thunder potential remains mostly around a 5 to 10 percent chance so it is not represented in the forecast, with the highest probability over the Sacramento valley. Into the early to middle of next week, high pressure is expected to build back in with inland temperatures warming back into the upper 80s and low 90s and coastal temperatures into the mid to upper 60s. Breezy north winds are expected, along with the potential for offshore flow. And, again, the offshore flow will help keep the coast clearer for the middle of the week. && .AVIATION...VFR and clear skies have prevailed overnight as light offshore winds continue aloft. Satellite imagery is indicating the possibility of a shallow haze layer lurking just offshore early this morning. This may briefly move onshore, with some MVFR haze possibly impacting the coastal sites this morning, along with some scattered low cloud later this morning. VFR is expected to continue across the interior through the day today. Some hires and MOS guidance is indicating coastal stratus developing offshore this evening, which may impact flying conditions at the coastal terminals tonight. && .MARINE...Winds remain mostly northerly through the weekend, weakening overnight and restrengthening to around 10 to 15 kts each afternoon. Northerlies are forecast to strengthen once again Sunday evening and Monday, with another round of gales possible around Tuesday. Northerlies are forecast to weaken through the latter half of the work week. A few small NW and S swells move through the waters over the next week, however seas remain primarily locally generated. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... None. && $$ Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png