Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 190546
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1146 PM MDT Thu Apr 18 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 118 PM MDT Thu Apr 18 2024
Warm temperatures and light afternoon breezes can be expected each
day. The Borderland remains dry but will have a chance for some
isolated thunderstorms in far east portions of the CWA and the
Sacramento Mtns. Otherwise, quiet conditions can be expected.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 118 PM MDT Thu Apr 18 2024
Fairly quiet weather will continue for the next week ahead with
warm temperatures and mostly dry conditions. Each afternoon will
feature light breeziness that calms in the evening and overnight
hours. A shortwave will pass by on Saturday afternoon, meanwhile a
dryline that is expected to reach as far west as El Paso will
begin retreating back eastward that afternoon. Low instability
will hinder thunderstorms, but there is decent 0-6km shear
(40-55KT). The dryline, shortwave, and orographics will act as the lifting
mechanism. In general, isolated thunderstorms are may occur with
a few lightning strikes possible that afternoon. Otherwise, the
area will largely stay dry.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1146 PM MDT Thu Apr 18 2024
VMC through forecast period under dry, southwest flow aloft. Band of
high clouds mainly FL250 and above leading to BKN-OVC skies
overnight. High clouds clearing Friday afternoon. Moisture boundary
intrusion at KELP around sunrise, shifting winds to the east with
minimal impacts to aviation. Surface winds generally AOB 8 knots
overnight, with 190-230 at 08-14 knots prevailing tomorrow
afternoon.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 118 PM MDT Thu Apr 18 2024
Persistent dry weather will continue for much of the area the next
7 days leading to very low min RH`s. Single digit min RH`s
expected Friday and Saturday except for eastern Hudspeth and Otero
counties where values reach above critical thresholds. Moisture
creeps in Saturday allowing for isolated thunderstorms over the
Sacramento Mtns and eastern Otero county. There is a chance for
dry thunderstorms that afternoon. Moisture spreads westward
Sunday, but critical values return once again Monday and Tuesday
for much of the area.
Wind speeds will remain fairly tame with low end afternoon breeziness
the next 7 days or so and will mostly be southerly/southwesterly.
Elevated fire weather conditions possible tomorrow afternoon for
the highest terrain of southern NM but looks to be isolated.
Wednesday may also feature elevated fire weather conditions that
afternoon.
Ventilation rates will be very good to excellent tomorrow through
Wednesday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 59 91 60 86 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 50 81 53 79 / 0 20 20 10
Las Cruces 56 91 54 86 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 54 87 55 81 / 0 0 0 10
Cloudcroft 42 63 42 55 / 0 10 10 20
Truth or Consequences 55 87 55 81 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 52 79 50 76 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 52 89 51 84 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 53 87 51 83 / 0 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 59 88 58 86 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 47 82 50 77 / 0 10 10 10
Fort Hancock 52 90 53 88 / 0 10 10 0
Loma Linda 52 82 52 77 / 0 0 10 0
Fabens 54 90 54 87 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 54 87 53 85 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 60 88 60 84 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada Range 54 87 52 85 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 53 90 52 86 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 56 89 56 86 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 53 85 53 80 / 0 0 0 10
Mayhill 43 76 45 62 / 0 10 10 30
Mescalero 47 74 46 65 / 0 0 10 30
Timberon 42 73 43 65 / 0 0 10 20
Winston 50 80 47 75 / 0 0 0 0
Hillsboro 53 85 50 81 / 0 0 0 0
Spaceport 52 86 49 83 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 47 79 44 77 / 0 0 0 0
Hurley 48 83 47 80 / 0 0 0 0
Cliff 52 85 49 83 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 52 80 49 78 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 52 82 49 79 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 53 87 50 83 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 53 87 51 83 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 52 87 50 83 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 54 80 49 78 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...15-Brice