Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44
000
FXUS63 KFSD 281704
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1204 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures gradually warm toward seasonal norms through
  Friday, with lagging still possible over areas with a
  lingering snowpack.

- Precipitation chances return Friday and again Saturday night
  into Monday. Best chances (50-80%) for seeing meaningful
  precipitation look to occur Sunday, with p-types consisting of
  a mix of rain and snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Latest satellite imagery reveals mostly clear skies across the
region, with a bit of stratus drifting southeastward along the MO
River Valley. Given the recent melt and calm winds in place, can`t
rule out the possibility of seeing some patchy fog develop prior to
daybreak, especially in areas with a lingering snowpack. Nonetheless,
expect any development to remain rather shallow and short lived.

Heading into the late morning/afternoon, expect upper level ridging
to build across the central CONUS as sfc high pressure slides across
the Northern Plains. Winds as a result, will remain primarily out of
the east/southeast under mostly sunny skies. Highs during this time
will also begin to moderate a bit back toward seasonal norms.
Currently have temperatures rising into the 40s to lower 50s over
bare ground, with areas that still have a decent snowpack struggling
to get out of the 30s.

Will then see a quick moving shortwave push eastward along the
International Border Thursday evening, causing precipitation chances
to return to the forecast. As alluded to in the previous discussion,
overall moisture with this wave remains rather meager. That being
said, most hi-res guidance and ensembles continue to show low end
chances (<30%) for precipitation, mainly along and north of Highway
14 overnight, then east of I-29 Friday morning/afternoon. However,
with sounding profiles still showing quite a bit of dry air in the
lowest levels, think most precipitation will struggle to reach the
ground - keeping overall impacts low. Otherwise, similar to
Thursday, expect highs Friday to largely depend on how much snowmelt
can be achieved. Think those that have little to no snow pack stand
a decent chance of seeing temperatures warm into the 50s to 60s.

Attention then turns to a pronounced upper level trough and low
pressure over the western CONUS heading into the weekend. Should see
largely quiet conditions prevail Saturday, with the next decent push
of precipitation forecast to return Saturday Night through Monday.
At this time, the best chances (60-80%) for seeing precipitation
remain Sunday night into Monday. In regard to p-type, think those
along and northwest of a line from Gregory, SD to Windom, MN stand
the best chance of seeing snow, with those southeast of this line
likely to see more rain. However, this could still fluctuate in the
coming days, so we encourage you to monitor the forecast for the
latest updates. Otherwise, look for upper level ridging to build
back over the region Tuesday and Wednesday, allowing dry conditions
to return.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

VFR through most of the period. Around KHON late tonight into
Friday morning some patchy very light rain or freezing rain will
be possible with an increased chance for MVFR ceilings after
about 14z. At this time this lower cloud layer is expected to
remain scattered east of the James River Friday morning, but
potentially become broken Friday afternoon.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SST
AVIATION...08


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.