897
FXUS63 KFSD 140755
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
255 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Largely dry conditions are expected through the afternoon as
  Canadian wildfire smoke continues to linger overhead. Impacts
  near the surface should remain minimal.

- Moderate chances (30% to 60%) for scattered showers and
  thunderstorms return tonight through Wednesday. A few strong
  to severe storms may be possible across northeast Nebraska and
  northwest Iowa, with quarter size hail and gusts to 60 MPH
  being the primary hazards.

- Confidence in rain chances remain low for the latter half of
  the forecast period given the model variability still in
  place. Do have higher confidence, however, that at or above
  normal temperatures will continue.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY: Aside from some upper level clouds across
south-central SD, latest satellite imagery reveals mostly clear
conditions across the region, with current temperatures in the mid
40s to lower 50s. Should see light and variable winds turn
east/southeasterly shortly after daybreak, with gusts between 15 to
20 MPH possible in areas west of I-29 this afternoon. Could still
see a bit of Canadian wildfire smoke linger aloft throughout the
day, though impacts near the sfc are expected to remain minimal.

Upper level trough and sfc warm front surge toward the region this
afternoon/evening, causing showers and thunderstorms to return to
the forecast. While WAA showers may be possible along and west of
the James River prior to sunset, expect the better chances to arrive
closer to midnight. These showers and storms will then push eastward
through daybreak Wednesday and continue through the evening. As
alluded to in the previous discussion, believe coverage will remain
fairly scattered, with a few lulls in activity possible Wednesday
morning. Coverage is then expected to become more widespread by
Wednesday afternoon ahead of an advancing cold front. In regards to
severe weather, instability still remains less then impressive with
most guidance showing CAPE less than 500 J/kg. However, a few
solutions do show bulk shear values between 20 to 30 kts. Thus,
can`t rule out the potential for a few organized storms to develop.
SPC`s latest Day 2 Outlook has introduced a Marginal Risk (Level 1
of 5) across northeast Nebraska and portions of northwest Iowa, with
hail (to the size of quarters) and damaging gusts (up to 60 MPH)
being the primary hazards. Thus, we encourage you to have a way to
receive warnings in the event that storms become severe.

While a few lingering showers may still be possible Thursday
morning, expect the overall trend to be toward drier conditions. In
terms of rainfall, have accumulations ranging between a tenth to a
half an inch, though locally higher amounts may still be possible.
Temperatures during this time look to remain seasonal, with highs
generally in the 70s and overnight lows in the 50s.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: Upper level flow turns quasi-zonal heading
into the weekend, with a few shortwaves progged to take aim at the
region. Should see largely dry conditions prevail Friday, with
periodic chances for showers and storms possible again Saturday and
Sunday. Overall moisture with these waves looks fairly meager
though, so not expecting much in the way of significant
accumulations. For those of you craving warmer weather, have
afternoon highs warming into the upper 70s to lower 80s through the
weekend, with lows remaining in the 50s.

MONDAY ONWARD: Model variability concerning how the upper level
pattern will evolve increases heading into the new week, making it
hard to put too much confidence behind any one particular solution
just yet. So for now, will continue to advertise periodic chances
for showers and storms. Otherwise, look for afternoon highs to drop
back into the lower 70s.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1035 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

While smoke will linger across the area through Tuesday, VFR
conditions are expected through the TAF period. Easterly
component winds will become light overnight, then increase by
mid to late morning on Tuesday. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms will develop over central SD by Tuesday evening,
then expand to the east through the early nighttime hours.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SST
AVIATION...JM