Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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863 FXUS63 KGID 030938 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 438 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain and storm chances increase (up to 90 to 100%) this evening and overnight. Some of these storms may be severe with damaging winds, hail up to the size of half dollars, and localized flooding. - Another good chance of rain and thunderstorms (up to near 90%) Monday into Monday night with severe storms possible. - High temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s. Lows will be in the 30s and 40s through the weekend, then in the 40s and 50s next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 252 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Today and tonight... Aloft (at 500 mb), a broad upper trough extends across the northern Plains and further west dives further south across the western CONUS. At the surface, a developing trough extends across the northern Plains toward the Rockies with a surface low over southeastern Utah, with a surface high over the central Plains. Today, the surface high will move to the east while the surface low strengthens and moves east toward eastern CO by this evening and into the Hastings forecast area by midnight, dragging a cold front behind it. Meanwhile, the deeper upper trough will move east over the central Plains this evening and tonight with a pronounced shortwave moving over the forecast area this evening. High temperatures today will be in the 70s. The latest CAM guidance shows showers and thunderstorms developing over western NE this afternoon, then developing into a line of storms moving east across the area this evening and overnight. Showers and thunderstorms can be expected across the area from around 7PM to 5-6 AM CDT, with the best chance for severe weather between around 8PM and 2AM. The main threats with this system will be large hail to around the size of half dollars (~1.25" diameter) and damaging wind gusts in excess of 60 mph (this will likely be the main concern). While an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out, we are expecting many of the storms to be elevated and with low level moisture struggling to get this far north, the chance for tornadoes remains low. Even after the thunderstorms move through, expect showers into the morning hours Saturday with gusts of 25-35 mph out of the north behind the front. Lows Saturday morning will range from the mid 30s north and west to the mid- to upper 40s south and east. This weekend... Showers and thunderstorms will move off to the east-southeast Saturday morning. Surface high pressure will move over the region Saturday while an upper ridge moves over the area late Saturday into Sunday. Saturday will be dry after the lingering showers/storms move out early morning with highs in the 60s and lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Sunday will remain dry as well for many areas, but an upper level trough across the southern Plains may impact the region enough to bring a few showers/storms to the area Sunday evening and into Monday morning. Monday... This will be the next chance for severe thunderstorms, assuming showers and storms earlier in the morning do not make the environment unfavorable for this. That being said, a deep upper level trough will extend from western Canada into the central and southern Plains, while a surface front moves across the Plains Monday and Monday night. With high temperatures in the 70s, there is a high chance (around 80%) of showers and thunderstorms developing Monday afternoon and evening. Latest model guidance indicates that there will be enough instability and shear to support severe thunderstorms during this time, with storms anticipated to move out of the area overnight Monday night. Next Tuesday through next Thursday... High temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s with periodic low chances (15-30%) of showers and thunderstorms through the period, mainly Thursday afternoon and evening. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1239 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Relatively light S to SE winds are expected through at least the early morning hours with surface high pressure sitting over the area. As the high moves east, S winds will increase throughout the morning, with speeds of around 10-12 kts after sunrise. As a cold front approaches this afternoon and evening, winds will become gusty as the pressure gradient tightens, with gusts of around 25 kts expected this afternoon. Rain and thunderstorms are expected to move across the area this evening and overnight, with RA and TSRA mentioned at both TAF sites. There will be a switch in wind direction from SE to N as the front moves through this evening, likely around 04/03Z but would advise that this could be a couple of hours on either side of that, depending on how accurate the latest model guidance is. Expect gusts of at least 30-35 kts for a brief period as the front moves through. Showers and/or thunderstorms will be possible beyond the end of this TAF period, potentially out until 09Z-12Z Saturday. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hickford AVIATION...Hickford