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000
FXUS65 KGJT 171141
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
541 AM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow enters the picture again for the northwest Colorado
  mountains today with a couple inches at best expected above
  9000 feet. Breezy conditions will occur with gusts 30 to 40
  mph possible in the northern valleys today.

- Unsettled weather continues through the end of the week as
  additional waves brush the region. Showers will favor the
  northwest Colorado mountains with no more than a couple inches
  of new snow expected.

- Temperatures will largely trend above normal through the week
  with winds gusting in the 20 to 30 mph range most afternoons.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 315 AM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Clouds are increasing from the west early this morning as the
next disturbance makes its way into the region. What started off
yesterday evening as mostly clear skies is now turning partly to
mostly cloudy this morning. A 110 kt jet will sag southward
from the base of the trough stretched across the northern
Rockies, allowing the gradient to tighten. This will allow for
some breezy afternoon winds across the northern valleys
especially with gusts 30 to 40 mph possible. Latest guidance
keeps wind gusts below wind advisory criteria for the most part
so elected not to hoist any wind advisories for the north but
this is something to watch. Some decent moisture is being
advected in from the west with this sagging of the jet and
frontal boundary as PWAT anomalies jump to 140 to 160 percent of
normal across the north and specific humidities jump to 4 to 5
g/kg. This shortwave is fairly weak and most of this moisture
remains at mid and upper levels. We will see westerly orographic
lift kick in again for the northern mountains with some light
snowfall. This may extend down to Vail Pass by this evening as
this shortwave sags southward. Snow levels remain high with a
couple inches of snow at best expected out of this disturbance.
The very highest peaks could see a little bit more but forcing
does remain weak with this wave. Lapse rates become steep this
afternoon with just enough CAPE that some isolated thunderstorms
remain possible. Snow accumulation is expected to favor areas
above 9000 feet. Elsewhere, a very wet rain/snow mix or all rain
is expected with very little if any snow accumulation below
9000 feet. Not expecting too much in the way of precip in the
lower elevations.

Most snow showers over the northern mountains are expected to
come to an end tonight with some redevelopment of showers over
the high terrain across the northern Colorado mountains down to
the Elk mountains as this moist westerly flow continues.
Additional accumulations are expected to be minimal though, but
plenty of cloud cover will be present given the mid and upper
level moisture. Aside from these higher elevations along the
northern Divide, the rest of the forecast area is expected to
remain dry but breezy.

As far as temperatures are concerned, the warmup will continue
despite the increasing cloud cover both today and Thursday.
Highs for much of the area are expected to rise to around 5 to
10 degrees above normal with the near normal or slightly below
normal temps occurring over the northwest Colorado mountains and
adjacent high valleys and along the divide due to the showers
and the frontal boundary. This means low to mid 70s for much of
the central and southern lower valleys and 60s for the northern
valleys. The higher valleys across northwest Colorado and the
mountain towns look to see highs in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 315 AM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024

The longwave trough to the north remains in place with a low
over southern Canada slowly drifting east. The strong thermal
boundary in the base of this trough along the Wyoming Border
supports the strong zonal flow aloft pulling in a continuous
stream of moisture across the CWA feeding light orographic
showers through the afternoon over the higher terrain,
especially along the Continental Divide. Only a few inches snow
will accumulate on the higher peaks Friday. Residual moisture
will keep isolated showers in the mountains Saturday, but little
if any snow accumulation will occur. Temperatures will remain
near normal across the northern areas of Eastern Utah and
Western Colorado and eight to 13 degrees above normal through
the central and southern areas of the region. A shortwave/ridge
couplet drops into the longwave trough Saturday inducing a wave
in the thermal boundary that allows a ridge to build in from the
west Sunday into early next week. Look for mostly sunny skies
and temperatures warming to about 15 degrees above normal (mid
80`s in the Grand Valley and mid 50`s in the mountains) under
the ridge. Warm temperatures over the past week have reduced the
snowpack and increased the flow in many streams and rivers
across the region. Look for this to continue into next week with
streamflows continuing to increase. No headlines are
anticipated at this time as current projections keep flows well
within normal ranges.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 540 AM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024

VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours with scattered
to broken mid and high clouds moving in from the northwest this
morning. Expect winds to become breezy after 16Z with gusts 20
to 30 kts fairly common. Light showers will develop over the
northern mountains and near HDN but confidence too low to put
VCSH in any TAF sites at this time. CIGS should remain above ILS
breakpoints.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MDA
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...MDA