Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 190347

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
947 PM MDT Fri May 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 343 PM MDT Fri May 18 2018

A weak mid-level trough will move northeastward over northeast
Utah this evening, reforming over the northeast Colorado plains
late tonight. Lift associated with this weak feature working on
lingering moisture will sustain showers and embedded thunderstorms
this evening. Diurnal cooling will bring an end to all but a few
showers along the eastern Uinta Mountains and the Park and Gore
Ranges overnight.

The cyclone over the High Plains will drive a cold front across
the area on Saturday. This feature will not only cool temperatures
but will enhance shower and thunderstorm activity across the area
with the higher terrain favored. Most precipitation will fall as
rain, but areas above treeline could see a few inches of snow.
Expect the normal downturn in shower activity in the evening as
the atmosphere stabilizes in response to cooling temperatures and
formation of a shallow short wave ridge.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 343 PM MDT Fri May 18 2018

A deepening closed low over the eastern Pacific will continue to
bring unsettled conditions through Monday with the mountains
continuing to be favored. As the low pushes over the Great Basin,
the deep southerly flow will develop across Eastern Utah and
Western Colorado bringing some drying to the region. This system
will stall over the western Great Basin for the better part of
Tuesday and Wednesday. Fire weather concerns for the Four Corners
region in this pattern with gradients tightening and humidity
values heading down. Temperatures will be running near seasonal
normals through Monday with an expected increase Tuesday through
Thursday as the southwesterly flow sets in.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 943 PM MDT Fri May 18 2018

VFR conditions will will continue at all TAF sites over the next
24 hours. A cold front will move across the area on Saturday
resulting in increased cloud cover and scattered showers and
thunderstorms across the higher terrain beginning between 15-18Z
with storms continuing through the evening. Gusty winds to 35 kts
will be possible near storms.




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