Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 232054
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
254 PM MDT Sat Mar 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerous fire weather conditions expected on Sunday.

- Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and
  damaging winds and even an isolated tornado, may develop
  along and east of Highway 25 Sunday afternoon.

- Very strong north winds expected in the wake of an Arctic cold
  frontal passage late Sunday afternoon and evening.

- Accumulating snow and blowing snow possible Sunday night into
  Monday morning.

- Dangerous travel conditions likely along the I-70 corridor in
  far northwest Kansas and eastern Colorado late Sunday into
  Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 252 PM MDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Synoptic Pattern: A complex upper level trough presently
situated along the Pacific Coast will amplify as it progresses
eastward across the Intermountain West (tonight), Rockies (Sun)
and central CONUS (Mon).

Feature of Interest 1: An upper level low situated along the
Pacific Northwest coast at 19Z will dig S-SSE through CA
(tonight-Sun) into northern Mexico (Sun night).

Feature of Interest 2: Potent shortwave energy situated
offshore central CA early this afternoon will move ashore
southern CA (tonight) and rapidly track eastward across the
Desert Southwest (Sun morning).. then lift ENE into the Central
Plains (Sun aft/eve).

Overview: A developing lee cyclone in Colorado (this afternoon)
will rapidly intensify during the day on Sunday (12-21Z).. as
Feature 2 approaches from the WSW. Guidance suggests a minimum
central pressure ~978-983 mb in vicinity of the CO-KS border by
~00Z Mon. The aforementioned cyclone is progged to track E and
NE into far northeast Kansas/far southeast Nebraska by mid-day
(18Z) Monday and Iowa by 00Z Tuesday. Strong low-level northerly
flow on the western periphery of the mid-latitude cyclone will
`tap` a Canadian Arctic airmass (over Alberta/
Saskatchewan/Manitoba).. advecting it southward through the
Dakotas into the Central Plains late Sun-Sun night.

Hazard (Fire Weather): Breezy to strong (30-40 mph) SW winds,
well above normal temperatures and dry conditions (antecedent
and otherwise) on the eastern periphery of the intensifying,
eastward advancing lee cyclone will foster dangerous fire
weather conditions across much of the area on Sunday.

Hazard (Severe Storms): Convection allowing guidance such as
the 18Z HRRR and NAM NEST suggest that scattered convection will
blossom over portions of far northwest KS ~20-21Z Sunday
afternoon. Forecast soundings /thermdynamic profiles/ suggest
that convection in the Goodland CWA will largely be high-based
in nature.. and that large hail/damaging wind are the primary
hazards.

Hazard (Strong N Winds): Strong northerly winds will develop
late Sun aft/eve as the aforementioned lee cyclone progresses
east toward central KS.. and an Arctic airmass /cold front/
surges southeastward through the area. While virtually all
guidance indicates that strong wind will be present, they
continue to vary with regard to how strong. A number of factors
will influence the MSLP-H85 height gradient over the region,
including the location/intensity/motion/track of the surface low
and the magnitude of Arctic high pressure extending into the
region from the north -- evaporative cooling associated with
upstream precipitation over Nebraska/Dakotas may augment the
airmass (make it colder, increase surface pressure), for
example. At this time, expect sustained N winds ranging from
30-45 mph and gusts in the 55-65 mph range. Blowing dust may
well accompany the frontal passage.. given the abrupt nature of
the wind shift and very dry antecedent conditions. A High Wind
Warning may ultimately be necessary Sunday evening into Monday
morning.

Hazard (Snow/Blowing Snow): Precipitation is anticipated to
develop on the W and NW periphery of the mid-latitude cyclone as
it progresses ENE-NE from Kansas into Nebraska/Iowa Sunday
night into Monday. Precip magnitude/distribution will highly
depend upon the evolution of the mid-latitude cyclone, which..
in turn.. will highly depend upon the evolution of the
amplifying upper level trough progressing eastward into the
central CONUS -- and smaller scale wwave interactions therein
(interactions between Feature 1 and Feature 2, in particular).
Solutions for the Tri-State area range anywhere from no
accumulating snow to 3-6" of snow. It should be reiterated that
*any* snow will further exacerbate already difficult travel
conditions assoc/w strong northerly winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1242 PM MDT Sat Mar 23 2024

At the start of the long term period, the upper low center is
situated over east-central Kansas, continuing to pull off
towards the east-northeast, resulting in a north-northwesterly
flow aloft for the area. As the backside of the trough moves
through, will see a few more waves of energy possibly allowing
for development of a few showers (generally a less than 20%
chance), Monday evening and again Tuesday evening-Wednesday
morning. At least some cloud cover will persist before the
upstream upper level ridge works its way eastward mid-week. This
will promote a warming/drying trend during the latter half of
the work week, once again increasing fire weather concerns. An
upper level shortwave and a surface low in the lee of the
Rockies are then forecast to move through the area Thursday
evening-Friday. With this, less than 15% chance for some rain
across far northern portions. Towards the end of the period,
model guidance depicts an upper level trough digging south along
the west coast, which will likely become the next system to
watch for next weekend into the following week. Temperatures
during the period continue below normal through Wednesday before
warming to above normal Thursday on.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1200 PM MDT Sat Mar 23 2024

GLD: Lingering IFR ceilings associated with stratus will
lift/scatter to VFR in short order, by ~19Z. VFR conditions are
anticipated to prevail thereafter.. through the duration of the
18Z TAF period. SSE winds at 15-25 knots will veer to the S and
increase to 20-30 knots this afternoon, with gusts up to ~35
knots possible. Breezy S winds will persist overnight.. and
through the remainder of the 18Z TAF period.

MCK: MVFR ceilings associated with stratus are anticipated to
lift/scatter early this afternoon, in the 19-22Z time frame. VFR
conditions are anticipated to prevail through the remainder of
the aft/eve and overnight. MVFR-IFR ceilings may re-develop late
Sunday morning (~15Z), near the end of the TAF period. SSE winds
at 15-20 knots will veer to the S and increase to 20-30 knots
during the mid-late afternoon, with gusts to ~35 knots possible.
Breezy S to SE winds will persist overnight.. and through the
remainder of the 18Z TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1200 PM MDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Dangerous fire weather conditions are expected across the entire
Tri-State area on Sunday -- regardless of whether or not RH
readings are below 15 percent. Breezy S and SW winds will shift
to the N late Sunday afternoon and evening.. as a deepening lee
cyclone tracks eastward across the region and an Arctic cold
front surges southeastward into the Tri-State area. An abrupt
northerly wind shift will occur late Sunday afternoon or early
Sunday evening.. around sunset (or an hour or two on either side
of sunset).. as an Arctic cold front surges southeastward
through the Tri-State area. Very strong north winds will
accompany and follow the frontal passage. This may create an
extremely dangerous situation, if a fire were to be ongoing at
the time of the frontal passage.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...Vincent
FIRE WEATHER...Vincent


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