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000
FXUS62 KGSP 230259
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1059 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Carolinas brings warmer weather on
Tuesday with dry conditions persisting over the area. Warm
temperatures will linger through the workweek despite a weak cold
front tracking across the western Carolinas on Wednesday. This front
may lead to rain showers Tuesday night into Wednesday, especially
over the immediate Tennessee Border.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 10:25 PM EDT Monday: Other than some widely sct high clouds
making their way over our area from the north, we remain mostly
clear late this evening with most sites currently reporting light
to calm winds. These conditions should enable good radiational
cooling overnight with lows expected to bottom-out about 8 to 12
degrees below climatology. These cold temps coupled with light
winds will likely lead to frost development across the NC mtns
and foothills where the growing season has begun. Thus, a Frost
Advisory is in effect for these areas from 2 am until 9 am Tues
morning. Other areas across the NC piedmont could also see some
patchy frost, however coverage will likely be pretty sparse so
those areas are included in the HWO for the time being.

Otherwise, southern stream upper trofing will move off the Atlantic
Coast overnight and further offshore on Tuesday. At the same time,
another closed upper low will dive SE from Canada and open back up
as it moves over the Great Lakes. It will eventually approach our
area from the NW by the end of the period late Tuesday. At the sfc,
broad and dry high pressure will persist over the SE thru the period
and begin to shift off the SE Coast later on Tuesday as another cold
front approaches the western Carolinas from the Ohio Valley. Thus,
we can expect another mostly sunny day for Tuesday with temperatures
rebounding another 10 degrees or so. That should put highs near climo
across our area. With fairly good mixing expected Tuesday afternoon,
RH values will likely approach critical values again. Depending on
how land managers feel about fuel moisture levels and the potential
for fires to spread, Fire Danger Statements may be needed.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 215 PM Monday: Starting off the short term in a quiet regime
with a trough to the north dipping southward toward the Ohio Valley.
A weak boundary could approach the area by Wednesday, but guidance
breaks it apart upon crossing the mountains. GFS and EURO do show a
narrow tongue of higher PWATS before drier air spills in by early
Wednesday. This could provide enough moisture to squeeze out some
rainfall, but QPF response is almost non-existent. Any measurable
rain is not expected at this time given the weak forcing and minimal
moisture. Once the boundary clears the region, high pressure builds
back and keep the area dry and quiet. Dewpoints will dip a bit on
Thursday but should remain high enough to keep RH values above any
critical thresholds for fire concerns. Temperatures will also dip
with the boundary passage and be a few ticks cooler on Thursday.
Overnight temps will remain warm and mild.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 220 PM Monday: Continuing with the quiet pattern, the extended
portion of the forecast also looks to be rather mild. By Friday,
upper high pressure across the Gulf begins to amplify and  build in
a stout ridge over the eastern CONUS. This will be the pattern
through the end of the period as the ridge axis grows and the high
pressure gains momentum. This strong blocking pattern will help
direct areas of low pressure in the central plains toward the NE and
keeps the area dry for the entire period. With the sharp height
rises through the weekend, temperatures are expected the increase as
well. Guidance from the NBM has most of the area reaching the 80s by
Sunday and into Monday. Overnight temps will also continue to be
mild and warm. With the high pressure churning, it should provide
some moisture fetch to keep dewpoints higher, reducing fire weather
concerns.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: With dry high pressure centered over the
region, VFR conditions will prevail thru the 00z taf period. Other
than a few high clouds, skies should remain mostly clear tonight
and tomorrow. Winds should go light and VRB to calm this evening
and stay that way thru the morning. They will pick back up from
the SW tomorrow afternoon and remain SWLY for the rest of the taf
period. I included some low-end gusts at KGSP, KGMU, KHKY, and KAVL
for tomorrow aftn. KCLT and KAND could also see some intermittent
gusts, but they will likely be more sporadic than gusts at the other
terminals so I left them out of the taf.

Outlook: Dry VFR conditions are expected to continue thru Tuesday
night as high pressure remains over the region. A cold front will
approach our area from the NW early Wednesday and move thru during
the day. This system could bring some brief flight restrictions.
Temporary drying returns on Thursday, followed by another moist
system on Friday.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ048-
     051>053-058-059-062>065-502-504-506>510.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...JPT