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000
FXUS62 KGSP 222158
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
558 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Carolinas brings warmer weather on
Tuesday with dry conditions persisting over the area. Warm
temperatures will linger through the workweek despite a weak cold
front tracking across the western Carolinas on Wednesday. This front
may lead to rain showers Tuesday night into Wednesday, especially
over the immediate Tennessee Border.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 5:45 PM EDT Monday: The latest visible satellite imagery
is showing mostly clear skies across our fcst area with pretty
much all of the sct cumulus well to our SE. Wind directions vary
quite a bit across the area, but the majority of sites continue
to generally favor a NLY direction, with a few locations still
reporting low-end gusts in the 15 to 20 kt range.

Otherwise, a strong upper ridge and broad hipres will continue
pushing east and engulf the FA thru the period. This will enable
good radiational cooling tonight and expect lows to reach frost
levels across the NC mtns and foothills where the growing season
has begun. Will issue a Frost Advisory for these areas beginning
06z thru 13z Tue. Other areas across NC could also see frost for-
mation, yet coverage will likely be more patchy due to pockets of
warmer air, so will include a frost mention in the HWO. Temps will
continue to warm Tue in very good insolation and with late day dew-
point recovery, expect RH values to drop into the u20s to arnd 30
percent range during the afternoon. Depending on how land managers
feel about fuel moisture levels and the potential for fire spread,
a Fire Danger Statement may be needed, mainly for the NE Georgia
counties. Highs will reach near normal levels tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 215 PM Monday: Starting off the short term in a quiet regime
with a trough to the north dipping southward toward the Ohio Valley.
A weak boundary could approach the area by Wednesday, but guidance
breaks it apart upon crossing the mountains. GFS and EURO do show a
narrow tongue of higher PWATS before drier air spills in by early
Wednesday. This could provide enough moisture to squeeze out some
rainfall, but QPF response is almost non-existent. Any measurable
rain is not expected at this time given the weak forcing and minimal
moisture. Once the boundary clears the region, high pressure builds
back and keep the area dry and quiet. Dewpoints will dip a bit on
Thursday but should remain high enough to keep RH values above any
critical thresholds for fire concerns. Temperatures will also dip
with the boundary passage and be a few ticks cooler on Thursday.
Overnight temps will remain warm and mild.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 220 PM Monday: Continuing with the quiet pattern, the extended
portion of the forecast also looks to be rather mild. By Friday,
upper high pressure across the Gulf begins to amplify and  build in
a stout ridge over the eastern CONUS. This will be the pattern
through the end of the period as the ridge axis grows and the high
pressure gains momentum. This strong blocking pattern will help
direct areas of low pressure in the central plains toward the NE and
keeps the area dry for the entire period. With the sharp height
rises through the weekend, temperatures are expected the increase as
well. Guidance from the NBM has most of the area reaching the 80s by
Sunday and into Monday. Overnight temps will also continue to be
mild and warm. With the high pressure churning, it should provide
some moisture fetch to keep dewpoints higher, reducing fire weather
concerns.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Fair weather thru the TAF period as high
pressure aided by upper ridging builds in from the west. This will
promote deep layered dry air and VFR conds. Surface winds outside
the mtns will remain n/ly to ne/ly today, then shift sw/ly on Tue.
At KAVL expect nw/ly flow thru this evening, becoming ssw/ly after
the inversion break Tue morning.

Outlook: Dry VFR conditions will continue thru Tuesday night as high
pressure builds over the region from the west. A cold front will
approach and lay down across the region Wednesday, which could bring
flight restrictions. Temporary drying returns Thursday, followed by
another moist weather system on Friday.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ048-
     051>053-058-059-062>065-502-504-506>510.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JPT/SBK
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...JPT/SBK