397
FXUS64 KHUN 281733
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1233 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today)
Issued at 840 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

With the upper ridge moving over the Carolinas and surface high
off the coast of the Carolinas, moisture will be on the increase
for the Tennessee Valley due to southerly return flow. Partly
cloudy skies will also lead to another day of highs reaching the
lower 80s this afternoon. Therefore, it will be a more humid and
hot day today. It will be breezy again as well, with sustained
winds between 10-15 mph and gusts up to 25 mph. Although, winds
are expected to gradually decrease through the late afternoon and
into the evening. Overall, no significant changes were needed to
the forecast. Enjoy the day!

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 150 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Seasonably warm/dry conditions will linger thru tonight, as lows
fall mainly into the mid 60s/near 60F. The overall pattern will
then begin to change going into the new work week, as the upper
ridge axis drifts into the mid/southern Atlantic Basin, while an
upper low/trough pattern out of the mid/southern Plains lifts NE.
An attendant sfc low will also lift into the upper MS Valley,
thereby helping to drag a cold front into the Midwest region.
Gulf moisture will spread back into the mid TN Valley Mon, with
increasing showers/tstms developing along/ahead of the oncoming
front. Relatively high chances for showers/tstms (70-80%) will
develop Mon night, as the front drifts closer to the area. The
front may then stall just to the NW of the local area on Tue, as
the upper trough axis crosses into the region. Low-medium chances
for showers/tstms (20-40%) will linger into Tue, before rainfall
tapers off Tue night, as drier air above H85 filters into the
region out of the WNW. The prob for any stronger storms looks
minimal attm, given the lack of any sig low-level convergence
coupled with better synoptic forcing diverting more to the north.
Seasonably warm temps look to continue Mon/Tue, with highs once
again climbing into the upper 70s/lower 80s, while overnight lows
trend predom in the mid 50s/lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 150 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Upper ridging will build into the Oh River Valley and northeast along
the Atlantic Coast through the second half of the work week, and will
keep temperatures on the warm side. Daily highs will reach the mid to
upper 80s, with very low (10-20%) chances for diurnal showers/storms
each afternoon through Thursday. By Friday, an upper low will pivot
from the Central Plains and into the upper Midwest, and a cold
front will push east, approaching the MS River Valley. As synoptic
lift increases ahead of this front, rain and storm chances will
increase to around 40-50% during the day on Friday and into Friday
night. Rain chances over the weekend will depend on the strength
of the ridge over the Gulf and southern Atlantic coast, which
could stall the sfc front just to our south early Saturday before
it lifts back north. This would support additional showers and
storms through the weekend, so have stuck with blended guidance
for PoPs (40-50%) at this range. Temperatures will cool but only
slightly Friday and Saturday, with highs near the low 80s.
Overnight lows will be in the 60s each night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

No rain is anticipated through Monday morning at either of the
TAF sites, but clouds have lingered a bit longer into the early
afternoon today. Still expect clouds to thin out through this
evening, but they will increase once again overnight and into
Monday morning. VFR conditions will prevail at both terminals
during this time. South to southeasterly winds will remain
elevated today, generally around 10-15 knots with gusts up to
20-25 knots possible. Winds may decrease for a brief time late
tonight, but they are forecast to pick right back up through
Monday morning.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....09
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...26