National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KHUN 151650
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1150 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today)
Issued at 803 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

The combination of an upper ridge over the western Gulf coupled
with a Bermuda high stretching into the eastern Gulf Coast will
maintain quiet/seasonably warm wx conditions into the afternoon
hrs. Current temps have already rebounded into the lower/mid 60s,
from their earlier lows mainly in the upper 40s/lower 50s. Temps
later today look to climb predom into the lower/mid 80s, which is
close to 10F above normal for this time of the yr.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Tonight, mid level ridging will gradually breakdown as a mid level
trough and associated surface low pressure system currently
located in the Plains pushes east. By Tuesday morning, clear skies
from the beginning of the week will have transitioned to overcast
conditions giving us a glimpse at the gloomy days ahead. As the
low pressure system continues to push east, rain chances are
introduced Tuesday night in NW AL ahead of the front.

Model guidance is again offering very different solutions as the
cold front moves through the area. The frontal passage along with
best rain and thunder chances looks to be Wednesday during the
day. Both the EURO and the NAM favor a more dry solution with low
chances for rain and storms while the GFS maintains a wetter
solution. Currently medium PoPs are in the forecast (30-60%) for
Wednesday during the day with rain chances decreasing by Wednesday
night.

As for severe weather potential, this will likely depend on
several things. If prefrontal showers develop Tuesday night and
persist through Wednesday morning, this would likely limit
destabilization potential and decrease severe storm
chances. Further, models differ on moisture and CAPE amounts
available to trigger storms. Without sufficient CAPE, storms may
be limited in their ability to create and maintain strong
updrafts. Ideally as we get into CAM coverage models will begin to
converge on a solution. However, the potential for a conditional
severe weather threat on Wednesday, in a boom or bust scenario if
you will, may be the reality.

Thursday currently remains dry, with a brief period of mostly
clear skies possible Thursday afternoon as the cold front
continues east.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Sunday)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Rain chances return late Thursday night as a secondary cold front
moves through. Low to medium rain and thunder chances will remain
through Friday morning. Medium to low rain chances remain through
the duration of the long term as several short waves ripple NE
along the western extent of the mid level trough. While severe
weather potential with any of these shortwaves is questionable at
this time, thunderstorms producing frequent lighting and gusty
winds look to be possible the entire weekend.

With the passage of the secondary cold front on Friday,
temperatures will take a slight dip through the weekend as
compared to our highs in the 80s this week. Temps look to be
limited to the low 70s and high 60s with Sunday being the cooler
of the two days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1150 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

With a strong area of high pressure in place SE of the area, VFR
conds are generally expected thru the period. Mid/high cloud cover
out of the WSW will increase over the area late tonight into Tue.
SW winds near 7kt will also become light/var this evening.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...09