760
FXUS61 KILN 060813
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
413 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak disturbance moving through a warm, humid airmass will
offer showers and a few thunderstorms during the day today. For
Tuesday and Wednesday, multiple systems lifting northeast from
the southern Plains into the Ohio Valley will provide additional
showers and storms. A cold front will bring cooler and drier
conditions Friday into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
An arching band of showers and thunderstorms remain poised to
lift northeast into the middle Ohio Valley this morning. While
an eventual weakening trend appears likely based on the latest
model guidance, we should still see some rather robust rainfall
rates owing to precipitable water values near the max for early
May. This will bring the potential for decreased visibility and
localized ponding of water on roadways, particularly for the
Tri-State heading through the morning rush.

A very moist airmass will remain across the local forecast area
through the rest of the near term period. Showers will likely
lead to saturation of the column and a heavy overcast sky
through the afternoon into the evening hours. These clouds
should hold high temperatures in the 70-75 degree range today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
After an overall lull in the precipitation tonight, another
shortwave will lift into the Ohio Valley Tuesday. With a 50-70
knot H5 speed max accompanying the disturbance, organized
convection and a severe thunderstorm threat remains possible...
particularly during peak heating hours. Highs will lift into the
mid to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Thunderstorm activity will linger into Tuesday evening, but we
should see a decreasing trend in coverage and intensity through the
night as we lose some of the instability and the frontal boundary
moves through.

Another mid level short wave will lift northeast across the Ohio
Valley Wednesday into Wednesday night within a sharpening upper
level trough. As it does, a strengthening surface low will move out
of the mid Mississippi Valley Wednesday afternoon and across the
Upper Ohio Valley Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Ahead of
the low, strengthening low and mid level flow will lead to good
moisture advection up into our region late Wednesday into Wednesday
night. As we destabilize through Wednesday afternoon/evening,
showers and thunderstorms will become more widespread into our
southwestern areas late Wednesday afternoon and overspread the rest
of the area heading into Wednesday night. With good low level and
deep layer shear developing, damaging winds, large hail and a few
tornadoes will all be possible. In addition, PWs will climb into
the 1.5 to 2 inch range Wednesday night, so heavy rainfall and some
flooding concerns will also be possible.

Shower and thunderstorm activity will taper off later Wednesday
night into Thursday morning as a cold front moves east across the
area. Cooler air will begin to advect into the region behind the
front on Thursday with afternoon highs ranging from the low 70s
northwest to the upper 70s southeast. The upper level trough will
deepen over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region through the end
of the week and into the weekend. This will be accompanied by a
cooler airmass along with some chances for diurnally enhanced showers
and a few thunderstorms. Daytime highs will be mostly in the 60s
Friday through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Increasing deep moisture along with coverage of showers will
lower ceilings and visibility starting around daybreak at the
Cincinnati terminals, with an expansion north through the
morning hours. Some guidance lowers ceilings into the IFR range
by late afternoon... though consensus (in addition to this TAF
update) holds off until tonight. This solution is favored by
climatology as well.

There is also a possibility that visibility lowers below three
miles for brief periods during increased shower intensity.

Winds will generally be out of the east at less than 10 knots
through the period.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...