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000
FXUS61 KILN 100552
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
152 AM EDT Wed Apr 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An active pattern takes hold for the remainder of the work week
as multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected through
Thursday evening. Additionally, gusty conditions are expected
Thursday and Friday. The area dries out Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A cold front will continue to sag slowly southeast into
northwest portions of our area overnight. Widespread showers
will continue to work east northeast across our area ahead of
this front as we head into the overnight hours. With the loss
of instability, the embedded thunderstorm activity should
gradually taper off as we head through tonight and the showers
may begin to become a bit more scattered. Lows tonight will
range from the upper 40s northwest to the mid 50s south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
In split flow regime - the Ohio Valley becomes under the
influence of the southern stream with flow backing ahead of
mid level low over the Southern Plains. Moisture increases ahead
of developing 50KT low level southerly jet Wednesday afternoon
into Wednesday evening. In response to this LLJ an initial wave
of pcpn north thru the afternoon into early evening with the
best coverage of showers/thunderstorms across the western
counties. Therefore, have gone with categorical pops across the
west.

As the mid level low ejects northeast from the Southern Plains into
the Mid MS Valley - the southerly low level jet increases with
favorable moisture transport into the area Wednesday night. Have
continued categorical pops across the entire area. Rainfall of
one half to around one inch is expected, with locally higher
amounts. River models suggest that this rainfall will create
rises on area rivers but not expected to result in new
flooding. Will have to monitor trends in rainfall forecast but
current QPF thinking suggest potential impacts on local small
streams.

Highs on Wednesday from the lower/middle 60s in the west - where
rainfall coverage is best to the upper 60s southeast. Lows
Wednesday night 55 to 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Deepening low pressure will lift north from the Ohio Valley on
Thursday into the Great Lakes on Thursday. Based on most of the
guidance, the low will offer strong warm air advection and adequate
instability for convection. Strong to severe storms are also
possible, especially during the afternoon... but details are very
uncertain here since the exact track of the low center will
determine the amplitude and direction of the vertical wind shear.

At any rate, the day will likely start with a slug of moderate
rainfall associated with a southerly low level jet and its moisture
transport/convergence. The cold front itself may hold off until the
evening... however, thunderstorms are possible in the warm sector
through most of the day.

Cold air advection and gusty winds will arrive behind the system
Thursday night into Friday. Will keep an eye on this through future
forecast updates as we may approach wind advisory criteria Friday
afternoon.

After a quiet day on Saturday thanks to high pressure, a progressive
shortwave will bring a chance of showers Sunday evening into the
overnight. A general ridging pattern in the mid-levels will keep
temperatures above normal through the weekend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A cold front is sagging through the area at the start of the TAF
period, bringing rounds of showers to all TAF sites. Instability
has diminished, so not expecting additional thunder overnight.
Showers begin to taper off slightly during Wednesday morning and
early afternoon hours before another system moves up into the
region, bringing renewed chances for rainfall Wednesday evening
into the overnight.
MVFR to IFR CIGs are in place across the region and continue
overnight into Wednesday daytime.
Currently, a handful of sites have reduced VSBYs with showers,
however, not expecting widespread VSBY reductions until
Wednesday afternoon with next round of precipitation, when VSBYs
area wide will fall to MVFR.
Light winds out of the southwest will back to out of the
southeast overnight, remaining under 10 knots. Southeasterly
winds pick up in intensity Wednesday evening/overnight. Have
introduced this near the end of the TAF period with gusts up to
18 knots.


OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS and thunderstorms possible through
Friday with periods of IFR. Wind gusts of 30 knots or greater
possible Thursday into Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CA