National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KJAN 142331
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
631 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Tonight and Sunday: Slow-eastward migration of the upper-
ridge/surface high will keep pleasant conditions in the area for
this evening and Monday. Lingering cloud cover and gusty
southerly/southwesterly winds will decrease as the evening
progresses. In addition to diminishing clouds and winds, moisture
will be on the increase. As a result, areas of dense fog will be
possible in the Pine Belt in pre-dawn hours. Held off on issuing a
Dense Fog Advisory but will cover the potential in a HWO graphic.
Overnight temperatures are expected to be in the mid 50s to lower
60s. For Monday, expect above average temperatures (highs in the
lower 80s), calm conditions, and increasing moisture (dewpoints in
the upper 50s to lower 60s) as the aforementioned upper-
ridge/surface high continues to influence our weather. /SW/

Monday night through Saturday night: Come Monday evening surface
ridging will be along the Gulf coast states from the east while a
mid level ridge axis will be centered over our CWA. A closed low
will be centered just east of the Four Corners region along with its
associated surface low. The closed low will become a nearly stacked
low pressure system as it tracks east across the central Plains
through Tuesday morning before shifting to the northeast Tuesday
afternoon. The ridging surface and aloft look to remain dominant
over our CWA most of Tuesday but the low level moisture will
increase and lead to rain chances returning across our northwest as
the cold front associated with the nearly stacked low pressure
system over the central Plains approaches. The nearly stacked low
will continue tracking northeast Tuesday night and Wednesday,
essentially stranding the cold front just northwest of our CWA. Not
much has changed with this recent model run and the heights look to
remain rather high over most of our CWA but there will be enough
favorable ingredients that isolated severe storms will be possible
Tuesday evening; and perhaps across our northern most zones
Wednesday afternoon before this system totally fizzles Wednesday
evening. Little if any precipitation is currently anticipated south
of Interstate 20. The gradient wind will result in breezy conditions
Tuesday afternoon over the western half of the CWA.

Wednesday night into Thursday morning dry weather is expected
areawide but another closed low tracking along the Canadian and
northern Plains border will drop another cold front our way. Rain
chances look to return to our northwest zones again late Thursday
afternoon. RAin chances look to continue over the northern portions
of our CWA through Saturday morning with the remainder of our CWA
staying dry. A cold front will finally drop through our CWA Saturday
night into Sunday and bring rain chances to our whole CWA Saturday
night into Sunday. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

VFR conditions will prevail for most of the area tonight along
with diminishing southerly surface wind. The primary concern will
be for fog development late tonight into early Monday morning for
southeast portions of the forecast area where wind should drop
off sufficiently. It is likely that LIFR category FG will impact
the HBG/PIB area, and a lesser fog threat could extend up to MEI.
Any fog/low stratus should mix out quickly by mid morning given
strong daytime heating. Otherwise, MVFR to perhaps IFR category
stratus may extend northward through western portions of the area
during the morning hours. By Monday afternoon, VFR conditions
along with southerly surface winds are expected to prevail area
wide during the afternoon. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       57  83  63  83 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      54  84  60  85 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     60  83  64  84 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   55  84  62  83 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       59  83  64  84 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    63  81  65  81 /   0   0   0  10
Greenwood     61  82  64  82 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SW/22/EC