Spot Forecast Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
000
FNUS73 KJKL 171206
FWSJKL
Spot Forecast for Seminary Branch...USFS
National Weather Service Jackson KY
806 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0900 EDT on April 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.
Please contact our office if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.
.DISCUSSION...Well above normal temperatures continue across the
area through Thursday. Breezy south to southwest winds will be the rule
today, particularly around showers and any storms. Morning showers and
stray thunderstorms should clear out by early afternoon but additional,
and stronger, storms will be possible into the evening as a cold front
approaches the area - but most locations including the wildfire site
will likely miss out on these stringer storms later in the day.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of
showers in the late morning and
afternoon. A chance of thunderstorms
in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 2 until 1400, then 3 until
1600, then 1.
Max temperature.....Around 78.
Min humidity........38 percent.
Dewpoint............50 increasing to 55 in the afternoon.
Max apparent temp...77.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 9 to 12 mph. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
afternoon.
Ridgetop wind.......Southwest 12 to 14 mph.
Mixing height.......3800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 10 to 18 mph increasing to 21 to 28
mph in the afternoon.
Vent Rate...........Poor (6400 knot-ft) increasing to good (80900
knot-ft).
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................8 early in the morning increasing to 71 in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (EDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........89 87 90 93 95 88 74 66 61
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH SCH CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).30 30 30 30 50 40 30 10 10
LAL.............1 1 1 2 2 3 3 1 1
Temp............71 72 71 72 73 74 75 77 77
Dewpoint........49 49 51 55 56 56 55 55 55
RH..............46 44 49 55 55 53 50 47 47
Aparnt tmp (F)..71 72 71 72 73 74 75 77 77
20 FT wind dir..S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT wind spd..10 13 12 13 12 13 13 14 14
20 FT wind gust.22 22 22 22 21 21 22 21 21
Ridge wind dir..S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
Ridge wind spd..12 14 13 14 13 14 14 14 14
Mix hgt (kft)...0.7 1.5 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.6 3.4 3.8
Transp wind dir.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
Transp wind spd.10 14 18 21 23 24 26 28 26
LVORI...........3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
ADI.............8 28 43 40 46 50 59 70 71
Haines index....4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..6 19 30 36 43 48 60 81 87
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR FR FR GD GD GD
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 60.
Max humidity........93 percent.
Dewpoint............56 increasing to 58 overnight.
Max apparent temp...75.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 12 mph in the evening and
overnight becoming light.
Ridgetop wind.......Southwest 5 to 14 mph.
Mixing height.......200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 15 to 22 mph decreasing to 3 to 9 mph
early in the evening.
Vent Rate...........Good (54200 knot-ft) decreasing to poor (500
knot-ft).
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................50 early in the evening decreasing to 2 late in
the night.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky (%).........62 43 37 26 57 57
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 10 10 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............75 72 68 65 64 62
Dewpoint........55 56 57 58 59 59
RH..............50 57 68 78 84 90
Aparnt tmp (F)..75 72 68 65 64 62
20 ft wind......SW 13 SW 12 SW 8 SW 6 SW 5 SW 3
20 ft wind gust.20 16 15 14 12 12
Ridgetop wind...SW 14 SW 13 SW 9 SW 7 SW 6 SW 5
Mix hgt (ft)....2900 400 400 300 300 200
Transport wind..SW 22 SW 9 SW 8 SW 7 SW 6 SW 5
LVORI...........1 2 3 4 5 7
ADI.............50 8 5 3 4 2
Haines index....3 3 3 3 4 4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..54 3 2 2 1 1
Ventrate Cat....FAIR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent) then becoming
sunny (10-20 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 83.
Min humidity........34 percent.
Dewpoint............60 decreasing to 52.
Max apparent temp...82.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 8 mph in
the late morning and afternoon.
Ridgetop wind.......Southwest 5 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......4600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 3 to 7 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (600 knot-ft) increasing to poor (27600
knot-ft).
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................1 to 37.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
Sky (%).........58 58 23 9
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0 10 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1
Temp............62 64 74 81
Dewpoint........58 60 59 54
RH..............87 87 59 39
Aparnt tmp (F)..62 64 74 81
20 FT wind......SW 3G9 S 5G8 SW 6G10 SW 8G10
Ridgetop wind...SW 5 S 6 SW 7 SW 9
Mix hgt (ft)....200 500 1500 3600
Transport wind..SW 3 SW 3 SW 6 SW 7
LVORI...........6 6 2 1
ADI.............1 3 11 31
Haines index....4 4 5 5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..1 2 7 22
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR POOR
$$
Forecaster...GREIF
Requested by...Michael Trent
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2411203.0/JKL
.DELDT 04/17/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL kykicc@firenet.gov