Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
927 FXUS62 KKEY 070825 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 425 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 425 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024 Mostly clear and warm conditions prevail along the Florida Keys on this early Tuesday morning. Radars detect scattered showers over the distant eastern Straits of Florida, but only a few small showers near the island chain. Temperatures are hovering in the upper 70s to near 80, with dewpoints in the lower 70s, and winds on land from the east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph. Surface analysis depicts high pressure centered over the western Atlantic, with the Keys remaining in moderate ESE flow along the southwestern flank of this high. Aloft, mid-level ridging over the Gulf of Mexico continues to dominate our local weather regime. The 00Z Key West sounding reflected this, with a weak inversion near 10K feet and relatively dry air through the mid levels. The sampled PW of 1.66 inches was above the 75th percentile for the date, and recent MIMIC-TPW satellite imagery shows estimated PWs near 1.5 inches continuing to push westward through the Straits and across the Keys. Mostly clear, warm and mainly dry weather will prevail through the rest of the work week, as mid level ridging persists over the Gulf of Mexico. There is sufficient low level moisture present to maintain slight 10 percent rain chances in the forecast today and tonight, then a drier airmass will move into our area from the east beginning Wednesday, with moisture depth squashed below 5000 feet. This should result in near zero rain chances across the Keys from Wednesday through Friday. Temps will remain a few degrees above normal, with highs in the mid-upper 80s and lows in the upper 70s to near 80. Dewpoints will gradually creep upward through the week, and peak afternoon heat indices near 100F will become likely from Thursday onward. Heading into the weekend, deep troughing over the eastern CONUS will squash the subtropical ridge south of our area, with a surface frontal boundary easing down the Florida peninsula. The latest guidance consensus continues to stall this front near Lake Okeechobee, which is expected by climatology as we head into mid May. Moisture pooling to the south of the stalled front will promote 20 to 30 percent rain chances during the weekend and into early next week, with the lack of a suppressing ridge aloft perhaps allowing for isolated thunder as well. Temps will likely remain above normal through the end of the forecast period. && .MARINE... Issued at 425 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024 Overnight observations show decreasing E/SE breezes along the reef and at Long Key C-MAN, with wind speeds dropping from caution range of 15 to 18 knots earlier in the night to 12 to 14 knots as of 4 AM. No marine headlines are currently in effect. From the synopsis, high pressure over the western North Atlantic will maintain moderate to occasionally fresh east to southeast breezes through Thursday night. Breezes will slacken and veer to the south and southwest Friday into the weekend, as the high shifts southward over the western Atlantic, and a weak frontal boundary stalls north of the Florida Keys coastal waters. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 425 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at the EYW and MTH terminals through the TAF period. Near surface winds will be east to southeasterly at 10 to 15 knots. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1937, the daily record rainfall of 4.08 inches was measured in Key West. Precipitation records for Key West date back to 1871. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...Jacobson Aviation/Nowcasts....AP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest