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000
FXUS63 KLBF 210833
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
333 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Expect seasonal temperatures this week with highs generally in
the 60s to lower 70s.

- Best precipitation chances are Monday night into Tuesday
  morning and Thursday night into Friday night. Severe threat
  Thursday night into Saturday uncertain at this time.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 333 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

H5 analysis tonight had an area of strong low pressure
just to the north of Hudson Bay Canada. A trough extended south of
this feature into the northern Great Lakes with another shortwave
thorugh present from southern Quebec into New England. Further west,
an elongated shortwave was present from southern Minnesota, west
into the Black Hills of South Dakota. Further south, shortwaves were
present from eastern Texas, east into Mississippi and Alabama.
Across portions of the western CONUS, ridging was present from
northwestern Montana, north-northwest into western portions of the
NW Territories of Canada. Further west, a strong shortwave trough
was present off the coast of Washington State. At the surface
tonight, high pressure was present from the northern High Plains,
south into the Nebraska Panhandle. Skies were generally clear to
partly cloudy across western and north central Nebraska and 3 AM CT
temperatures ranged from 25 degrees at North Platte and Ogallala to
34 degrees at Broken Bow and Thedford.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 333 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Low amplitude ridging will build overhead today, allowing
warmer air to push into the region from the west. H85 temps will
approach 6 to 10C across the area this afternoon. Looking at
the latest Bufkit forecast soundings they show good mixing up to
the H800 level this afternoon. With the forecast H85 temps and
the degree of mixing this afternoon, trended highs toward the
warmer MAV guidance. Later tonight, the ridge will migrate
southeast of the area as a northern stream shortwave crosses
southern Alberta and Saskatchewan. Skies will be mostly clear in
the evening with increasing high clouds across the north toward
daybreak Monday. Lows tonight will be milder with lows around
40. On Monday, the northern stream shortwave will force a
Pacific cold front through the northern half of the forecast
area. This front is expected to reside from northeastern into
southwestern Nebraska by mid afternoon Monday. A weak area of
mid level warm air advection will overspread the front Monday
evening. This will lead to an increased threat for showers and
possibly an isolated thunderstorm in the south and eastern
portion of the forecast area Monday evening. The latest NAM 12
soln develops some 500-700J/KG sfc. based CAPE at 21z Monday,
from southwestern into south central Nebraska. With negative
LI`s noted in the southern CWA late Monday afternoon, went ahead
and introduced a mention of thunder over the far southeastern
portion of the forecast area. The severe threat appears minimal
given the low degree of CAPE and limited low level moisture.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 333 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

After somewhat cooler temps on Tuesday, ridging will build back
into the central CONUS Wednesday into Wednesday evening. Weak
mid level WAA will spread across the area Wednesday into
Wednesday night, leading to an increased threat for showers and
thunderstorms. The mid level pattern will transition to
southwesterly beginning Thursday and will persist into the
weekend. This will lead to a deepening surface trough off to the
west of the forecast area with increased southerly winds. It
will also open up the forecast area, to a string of mid level
disturbances, which will approach the Central Plains, beginning
Thursday night. This will lead to periodic chances for showers
and thunderstorms Thursday night through Sunday. ATTM, the
degree of moisture return, and the degree of the severe threat
remains uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

VFR conditions prevail across western and north central Nebraska
through the period. The exception will be across far southwest
Nebraska (KOGA and KGGF) where some fog development will be
possible overnight, resulting in a brief period of MVFR
conditions with a quick return to VFR around sunrise.
Otherwise, winds will be light and variable overnight,
strengthening out of the south-southwest in the late
afternoon/evening with gusts of 20 to 25 kts expected.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Viken