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000
FXUS64 KLCH 170437
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1137 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Upper trof and associated SFC cyclone over the Central Plains
progged to lift out toward the Great Lakes tonight and WED.
Associated LLJ and tight pressure gradient yielding gusty south
winds across the area this afternoon, which will ease tonight as the
gradient relaxes and the LLJ pulls away to the NE. Warm and humid
weather will continue, with lows around 70 and highs in the
lower/mid 80s. A weak impulse in the southern stream will traverse
the area THU, but GFS/NAM FCST soundings show a decent capping
inversion in place, which should act to inhibit convection. Thus,
expect that THU will largely be a repeat of WED; warm and cloudy but
otherwise dry.

13

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Monday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

The most active portion of the entire forecast period can be found
in the longterm. Friday will be rather warm under strong high
pressure influence and increasing heights aloft. Generally everyone
should be in the mid to upper 80s (several degrees above climo
normals) with minimal precipitation chances to end the work week.

Moving into Saturday, shortwave trof moving over the desert
southwest will help to usher high pressure and upper ridging along
to the east. This trof is set to swipe across the southern US states
Saturday and Sunday, pulling southward a frontal system from the
central US into the deep southeastern US. Between increasing forcing
from the trof/front and decreasing heights aloft, precipitation
chances start to increase Saturday morning. The front will slowly
approach from the north and west on Saturday with PoPs increasing
slowly but markedly into Sunday when the front reaches the region.
While moisture will be entrenched over the area, it does not appear
we`ll be looking at a flooding situation. Current forecast QPF
Saturday and Sunday is generally 0.50 to 1.00 inches or less.

The front slides off to the east Monday with high pressure building
in thereafter.

Above average temps early in the period will drop largely on Sunday
between cool airmass moving in and cloud cover/rain cooled air.
Rebounding temps take place Monday with temps in the mid 70s and
near 80 on Tuesday.

11/Calhoun

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Current conditions are VFR to MVFR with ceilings higher than
expected. Lower ceiling and some visibility restrictions will
move in later tonight with MVFR conditions through sunrise. Winds
will be from the south and light for the rest of tonight and
tomorrow. VFR conditions will return around 12Z at all terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 337 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Modest and gusty south winds will ease late tonight into
Wednesday as a storm system over the Plains lifts off toward the
Great Lakes, with a generally light onshore flow prevailing into
the weekend. Precipitation chances are negligible until the
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  69  83  68  84 /  10  10  10  20
LCH  71  81  70  81 /   0  10   0   0
LFT  71  83  71  84 /   0  10   0  10
BPT  71  82  71  83 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...14